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The Patriots are one of the most dangerous underdogs ever

By Mike Tunison | Last updated 1/15/19

Narratively, the Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t be bigger underdogs going into an AFC championship against the New England Patriots. A franchise that hasn’t won a Super Bowl in nearly 50 years, led by a coach who has never won the big one, is going against a franchise with five championships since the turn of the millennium that is making its eighth consecutive appearance in the conference title game.

All that is notwithstanding to oddsmakers, who installed the Chiefs as 3-point favorites to start the week. The difference in this case represents only who has home field, but it’s remarkable nonetheless. It’s the first time the Patriots have been the underdog in any game Tom Brady has started since early in the 2015 season. Naturally the Pats, who relish any perceived disrespect for their supposed motivational benefit, have already been playing that up, with Brady making the uproarious claim that people think the Patriots suck.

To make the Super Bowl for only his second time as a head coach, Andy Reid must defeat the coach and quarterback tandem that denied him his last shot at a championship. Reid can’t exactly complain about having Donovan McNabb and Terrell Owens in Super Bowl XXXIX, but now he has a young passer who put up near all-time records in just his first season as a starter. Patrick Mahomes is going to be a huge part of the story no matter how he fares Sunday, but he’s almost certainly going to need a banner performance to advance to the Super Bowl. Nothing less would be fitting in a season where the top four scoring teams are the ones that remain on championship Sunday.

New England made an emphatic statement this past weekend by drubbing the Chargers to such an extent that the contest was basically over at halftime. It’s easy to forget that while technically they were a wild-card team, the 12-win Chargers were hardly a pushover. They were also the only team that happened to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead this season.

Based on what happened in the divisional round, a fascinating strategy awaits in the AFC championship. The Colts went into Kansas City and thought they could bully the Chiefs with the ground game, control the clock and grind out an upset. The Chiefs refused to rely on a finesse game, dominated on the defensive front and won handily despite Mahomes not throwing for a touchdown for only the second time all season. The Patriots, meanwhile, succeeded in just what the Colts intended to do in Arrowhead: plow through the opposition. The Pats outgained the Chargers on the ground by a staggering differential of 155 yards to 19.

Philip Rivers was sacked only twice, though he faced a higher rate of pressure than any quarterback has in any other game this season. If Mahomes has already surpassed Rivers, the veteran isn’t far behind, and Sunday was proof that no QB can muster enough offense to be competitive with the opposing rush being that effective.

The Patriots pressure on Philip Rivers has been the key to the first half. No QB has faced a higher rate of pressure than Rivers in a game this season (71%).

No Pressure: 5/5, 100 yards, 1 TD (158.3 passer rating)
Pressure: 2/11, 21 yards (39.6 passer rating)#LACvsNE | #GoPats pic.twitter.com/hU97P5sDS5
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 13, 2019

Reid and Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy are crafty minds capable of producing schemes that can counteract some of the rush. Playing at home also puts the Chiefs offense in a better situation than the Chargers trying to deal with crowd noise in Gillette Stadium.

The recent history between Reid and Belichick has been decidedly mixed. Since Reid joined the Chiefs in 2013, the teams are 2-2 against one another. The Patriots won the lone previous postseason meeting, a divisional-round game in Foxborough following the 2015 season.

Kansas City, however, has logged some notable regular-season wins over New England in that span. In recent years, you can almost set your watch to a Pats early season defeat touching off a round of impulsive takes about how their run of greatness is at long last over, only for the Pats to be their usual dominant selves by the end of the season. Kansas City’s unexpected blowout of New England on Monday night at Arrowhead in September 2014 set off the trend and remains the most notable recent example. The Chiefs also won the 2017 season kickoff game, in which road teams typically do not fare well, in Gillette Stadium. This year, the Pats won the regular-season meeting, 43-40, thanks to a last-second field goal, though the Chiefs did come back from a 24-9 halftime deficit to tie it late in the fourth.

There’s good reason why oddsmakers are essentially throwing up their hands and calling it even on judging the quality of the teams, handing favorite status to the Chiefs by virtue of setting only. Pick apart all the lead-up you want, but there’s little telling who will come out on top or even what type of game it’s going to be. Both teams have shown an ability to anticipate weakness and adjust based on strength. Given his reputation, you’d have to assume Belichick has the advantage. That said, if you go back far enough, you’ll find others who found a way out from under his thumb.

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