Patriots Playoff Picture Changes After Loss vs. Bills

The New England Patriots entered their Week 15 matchup against the Buffalo Bills in hot pursuit of their first division title since the 2019 season — as well as their 29th playoff appearance in franchise history. With a win over Buffalo, New England would have secured the AFC East, while punching their ticket to the postseason.

Unfortunately for Patriots Nation, the Bills had alternate plans. The Pats squandered a 24-7 halftime lead to an onslaught of Buffalo points in the second half. In turn, New England dropped to 11-3 on the season with a 35-31 loss to the Bills on a snowy afternoon at Gillette Stadium.

Despite suffering defeat at the hand of their divisional rivals, the Patriots remain well-positioned in the playoff standings. In that regard, here is a look at the AFC playoff picture through 15 weeks of the 2025 NFL season:

AFC Postseason Standings After Week 15

1. Denver Broncos (12-2)
2. New England Patriots (11-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)*

— Week 15 Monday Night Football vs. Dolphins not included

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (10-4)
7. Houston Texans (9-5)

In the Hunt — 8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6); 9. Baltimore Ravens (7-7); 10. Miami Dolphins (6-7)* —Week 15 Monday Night Football vs. Steelers not included

Securing the Top Seed in the Conference?

With the Denver Broncos 34-26 victory over the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, the Patriots chances of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC have notably decreased. Not only did the Broncos become the first team in the conference to secure a playoff berth, they improved their overall record to 12-2. As their loss to the Bills puts them at 11-3, New England is now trailing Denver by a full game in the standings. The Broncos also hold the tiebreaker over New England in case the two clubs finish on the same record. New England will need to finish with a better overall record to overtake Denver to earn the top seed in the conference — along with a coveted first-round bye.

As a reminder, tiebreakers for teams with an identical conference record are awarded first by head-to-head record, second by in-conference record and third by record versus common opponents. Since New England does not play Denver this season, the Broncos would ascend to the top spot based on their superior record against the AFC.

With the overall record now set to be the deciding factor, Denver’s remaining three games are against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs (away) and Los Angeles Chargers. 

New England’s last four contests will put them against the Baltimore Ravens (away), New York Jets (away) and Miami Dolphins.