NFL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Power Rankings

Pictured: Jacoby Brissett and Joe Burrow Getty Images

Patriots vs. Bengals prediction: Odds, lines, best bets, expert picks for NFL Week 1

Originally posted on Action Network | By Nick Giffen | Last updated Sep 7, 2024 3:07 PM ET

The New England Patriots begin the regular season against the Cincinnati Bengals, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.
The Bengals are favored by 9.5 points over the Patriots, which is the biggest spread of the week. The game total is set at 40.5.
Jacoby Brissett won the Patriots' QB battle over rookie Drake Maye and will start opposite Joe Burrow, who returns after suffering a season-ending wrist injury last November.

It's time for my Patriots vs. Bengals prediction.

Cincinnati is a popular pick to bounce back this season after Joe Burrow's injury led to missing the playoffs. New England, meanwhile, is in a new era without Bill Belichick. Here's how this one might play out.

No matter what game you're looking for, Action Network goes deep on ALL the key NFL matchups at their NFL betting hub, where you'll find the odds, picks and predictions you need to win!

Patriots vs. Bengals Picks

SPREAD

I think 8.5 points is too many for Cincinnati to be laying here, so I like the New England side. I would bet Patriots +9 if the spread gets there again.

MONEYLINE

While I think the Bengals shouldn't be favored by this much, I'm not going to bet the Patriots moneyline.

TOTAL

I have no bet on the Patriots-Bengals over/under.

Patriots vs. Bengals Pick: Patriots +9

Patriots vs. Bengals Odds

Sunday, Sept. 8

1 p.m. ET

CBS

Patriots Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+9.5 -115	40.5 -110o / -110u	+350

Bengals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-9.5 -105	40.5 -110o / -110u	-450

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Patriots vs. Bengals Point Spread: Patriots +9.5 | Bengals -9.5
Patriots vs. Bengals Total: Over/Under 40.5
Patriots vs. Bengals Moneyline: Patriots +350 | Bengals -450

How to Watch Patriots vs. Bengals

Location:	Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati
Date:	Sunday, Sept. 8
Kickoff Time:	1 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming:	CBS

Patriots vs. Bengals is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET live from Paycor Stadium on Sunday. The game is live on CBS and other streaming platforms, such as YouTube TV.

Patriots-Bengals Betting Trends

61% of bets and 65% of the money are on Cincinnati to cover the spread.
88% of bets and 59% of the money are on the over.
95% of bets and 87% of the money on the moneyline are on the Bengals.

Patriots vs. Bengals: NFL Week 1 Picks

There is a lot of uncertainty on both sides here, and most of it on the Cincinnati side is with the offense.

Burrow is returning from a wrist injury that sidelined him for the stretch run of last season. Ja'Marr Chase is practicing this week, but his status for this game is still up in the air. Burrow's supporting cast of playmakers also will look a lot different with running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Tyler Boyd both gone.

The Bengals' defense had less turnover, losing defensive tackle D.J. Reader but adding safety Vonn Bell from the Panthers.

For New England, there are plenty of big changes that bring unknown factors. Obviously, Belichick is gone and Jerod Mayo is in as head coach. It's a new era in New England.

Brissett will start under center despite New England spending the third overall pick on Maye earlier this year. The significant turnover at wide receiver and on the offensive line could be why the Patriots are opting against throwing Maye straight into the starting role.

Best Bet for Patriots vs. Bengals

According to Action Network's Sean Koerner, there's a 5.5-point difference against the spread between Burrow and Brissett. After that, I'm not sure there's enough that is in Cincinnati's favor between other factors like home-field advantage, special teams, coaching, the defenses, injuries or weather that can get me to think Cincinnati should be favored by this much.

Something else that gives me faith in New England: Teams that won six or fewer games the previous year are 84-52-6 (60%) ATS as underdogs in Week 1.

Again, I lean toward Patriots +8.5 but would bet this if the line rises back to +9.