Patriots vs. Bills Is the AFC’s Defining Playoff Question

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills are two of the top contenders in the AFC this season, and their two regular-season matchups have delivered.

The Patriots are 12-3 and have found their rhythm thanks to new head coach Mike Vrabel and MVP-caliber quarterback Drake Maye. Just behind them in the AFC East standings at 11-4, Buffalo’s Josh Allen could make his own case for MVP, as he and running back James Cook III have been fueling the Bills’ offense this season.

The two teams split their matchups this season, with the Patriots winning 23-20 in Buffalo in Week 5 and the Bills winning 35-31 in New England in Week 15.

Buffalo isn’t able to walk over the Patriots as they have in the last five years, so what does that mean for a potential playoff matchup? 

Heading into Week 17, the Patriots hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC (only behind the Broncos), and the Bills sit with the No. 6 seed. If the Patriots fail to get the No. 1 seed and the bye that comes with it, they will likely face the Houston Texans in the first round. Houston’s exceptional defense may prove challenging for a Patriots offense that can be inconsistent at times, but ultimately, they might be an easier matchup than Buffalo.

Going into these playoffs, Allen will likely be the best at his position among both conferences, with Maye and MVP-favorite Matthew Stafford being his only competition. Due to that, Buffalo’s chances of running the table in the playoffs exceed even more, as having an elite QB is often all you need. 

Let’s take a look at how the two juggernauts’ previous bouts went.

Week 5: Patriots Stun Bills

Despite Allen’s heroics, it was Maye and the Patriots’ run game that helped New England eke out a win in Week 5. Early-season RB trio Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson each got six or more carries in this game, with the former rushing for the team’s only two touchdowns of the night. 

While the run game paved the way for New England, it would be hard not to mention Stefon Diggs when talking about this win. The former Bill has been New England’s best receiver this season, with nearly 869 yards on 76 catches. Though the 32-year-old has had a questionable reputation in the past, he has really stepped up as a leader this year in the locker room. In this game, Diggs had 10 receptions for 146 yards, including a 32-yard catch. He was integral to the Patriots’ ability to extend drives and put points on the board. 

Nine of those points came from rookie kicker Andres Borregales, who went perfect on the night, including a 52-yarder to win the game.