Patriots vs. Jets picks, predictions, props, odds, best bets for 'Thursday Night Football'

John LanFranca's Patriots vs. Jets Pick Against the Spread

Thursday, Sept. 19

8:15 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Patriots +6.5 (-120, BetMGM)

By John LanFranca

I'm not sure the Jets are playing at a level that warrants laying almost a touchdown in this spot.

Through two weeks, these offenses have gone three-and-out on over 40% of their possessions. Both rank in the bottom eight in the NFL in that category. Defensively, the Patriots have the slight edge, allowing only 5.1 yards per play (14th) to the Jets' 5.4 (18th).

Two matchups in this game increase the chances of New England playing New York closely throughout.

First, we know what the Patriots want to do on offense, and that's to lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in the running game. Stevenson leads the NFL in missed tackles forced with 13 through two games. He has also created 3.09 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks eighth in the NFL among running backs with 20 or more carries. The Jets currently sit 30th in the league in yards after contact per attempt allowed when defending the run.

Secondly, Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez is quickly becoming one of the league's top cover corners. Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf last Sunday on 82% of his routes, limiting him to three catches for 24 yards. If the Patriots can contain Garrett Wilson on Thursday night, it bodes well for their chances to pull the upset. Wilson has been the first read of Aaron Rodgers on 35% of all Jets pass attempts thus far this season.

I'm taking the points with New England and would bet the Pats down to +6.

Pick: Patriots +6.5 (-120)

Billy Ward's Patriots-Jets Over/Under Bet

Thursday, Sept. 19

8:15 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Under 38.5 (-110, Bet365)

By Billy Ward

After some relatively fun weekday matchups to start the year, we're now back to the NFL tradition of putting the sloppiest possible game on an island. The Jets and Patriots have combined to average fewer than 20 points per game this year — and that qualifies as a massive pleasant surprise for New England.

The total has already dropped four points from the opening number, which is a good sign of what side sharp bettors were taking. Of course, we're getting a worse number than those bettors, but I still like it.

The Jets' most consistent production so far has come through the running game, but New England ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the rush so far this year. On the other side, the Jets rank third in DVOA against the pass and are six-point favorites. That gives New England little hope of closing the gap if it falls behind, while the Jets will be able to play slow-paced, ball-control football.

The Jets already play at a slow pace so even if they throw more than anticipated, it wouldn't be a big blow for this bet.

Also, since the start of the 2019 regular season, primetime unders are 182-124-3 (59.5%).

Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)

Grant Neiffer's Breece Hall Player Prop

Thursday, Sept. 19

8:15 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Breece Hall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-125, BetMGM)

By Grant Neiffer

Breece Hall has been used a ton in the Jets' passing game so far this season, and I don't see it slowing down this week.

Aaron Rodgers has been dumping off to his RBs at a massive clip, with Hall being targeted 14 times between the Jets' first two games. Hall hit the over on this number at a decent clip last season and now has a more competent QB at the helm who wants to use him early and often.

I have Hall projected for nearly 40 yards, making this a great bet.

Pick: Breece Hall Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Derek Farnsworth's Rhamondre Stevenson Prop Pick

Thursday, Sept. 19

8:15 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-130, BetMGM)

By Derek Farnsworth

We know the Patriots want to run the ball. After that, they'll want to run it again — and again.

However, even with the Pats having a 57% run rate this season and even though they've had a lead when starting most of their drives, Rhamondre Stevenson still has five receptions on targets. Jacoby Brissett is not looking to throw the ball downfield, often opting to look for his running backs.

The Patriots are 6.5-point underdogs, so they might be forced to air the ball out a bit more, especially in the second half, than they've had to in their first two games. The Jets have two elite outside cornerbacks that often force quarterbacks to target routes that are underneath coveage or over the middle of the field. New York gave up seven receptions on nine targets to Titans running backs last week.

I know this is a different offensive system, but Stevenson has had at least three receptions in seven of 12 games last season. The Patriots' offensive priority is to get him the ball.

Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)

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