Paxton Lynch fits the mold but may be hard-pressed to earn his shot in Denver

The consensus on Lynch going into the 2016 NFL Draft was that his development was viewed as a long-term process, albeit one with a high ceiling – enough so that Jerry Jones was kicking himself in the immediate aftermath for the Cowboys being unable to trade up to get him. Denver’s choice of a less-than pro-ready quarterback in the first round that year was a curious one given that Peyton Manning had retired after winning the Super Bowl the previous season, and Brock Osweiler had been lured away by Houston thanks to a now-infamous free agent deal.

It would be far from a disaster if Lynch wasn't ready to start by the beginning of his rookie season, but someone would have to be — and preferably not Mark Sanchez, whom the Broncos had acquired as a hilarious last-ditch option that offseason. Luckily for Denver, Trevor Siemian emerged as a viable starter. In terms of actual NFL game experience, his career total was negligibly more than Lynch. Siemian had an extra year of experience learning on the job, but he only took one regular-season snap in his rookie season in 2015, and that was a kneel-down.

The Broncos had reasonable confidence in Siemian to start out 2016. As conventional NFL thinking goes, if someone was going to crash and burn, better the second-year quarterback drafted in the seventh round than an incoming first-rounder. The Broncos missed the postseason for the first time in six seasons, but just narrowly, and Siemian’s play could hardly be a scapegoat. While not exactly spectacular, he was pretty good for a first-time starter. His popgun arm hardly instills fear in opposing defenses, but he still has a world-class defense at his back and enough weapons to game-manage his way to wins.

Denver’s defense still played at a championship level in 2016. DeMarcus Ware retired this spring, but the Broncos are expected to remain among the league’s best at stopping the opponent. Lynch was given every opportunity to win the starting job over the offseason with changes to the coaching staff and offensive scheme that seemed to suit him. His preseason play was atrocious at times, leading new head coach Vance Joseph to favor the steady hand.

On Monday, while describing the decision to go with Siemian as a permanent one, Joseph said, “It’s all about performance, not potential. Trevor’s ready to lead our football team.”

Given the lack of success general manager John Elway has had with high offensive draft picks in recent years, Joseph could be walking on eggshells to avoid offending the boss. It’s also possible the team knows there’s value in not tossing Paxton Lynch by the wayside following two OK NFL starts and one subpar preseason.

In recent memory, only Aaron Rodgers has been a quarterback drafted in the first round who has not captured his team’s starting job by the start of his second season and gone on to excel, whereas the likes of Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel have faltered. Rodgers, of course, has a much better excuse than Lynch given that he was sitting behind Brett Favre for three seasons.

In general, QBs taken in the latter half of the first round have not fared exceeding well aside from Rodgers. Of the current NFL starting QBs, Teddy Bridgewater is the only one besides Rodgers to come out of the latter half of the first round, and Teddy’s career is essentially in limbo at the moment. The bizarre calculus of passers in the draft means boom-or-bust at the top of the first round. Then someone's hype attaches itself to a questionable passer at the end of the first. For some reason, teams seem to have more luck drawing starting quarterbacks out of the mid-to-later rounds than the end of the first.

Paxton Lynch could end up working out, eventually. Going to Denver and its gangbusters defense might have seemed a blessing at first. Then again, it’s also an aging team with the writing on the wall. The Broncos haven’t been able to afford to simply hand the keys over to Lynch and hope for the best. There’s a closing window of contention for which to be mindful. The problem is if Lynch ever does get a chance in Denver, it’ll be when the roster is trending downward, and that’s no place for a promising career to take root.