PFF Predicts Ceiling and Floor for Falcons Michael Penix Jr

The Atlanta Falcons enter their second year with quarterback Michael Penix Jr., and their first with him as the starter entering the season. With a scheme now focused around him and not Kirk Cousins, he should be put in a position to take a step forward. 

The expectations for Penix are high; if things fall into place the way the Falcons are hoping

Pro Football Focus (PFF) contributor and analyst John Kosko made predictions for the ceiling and floor of each second-year quarterback in the NFL. The 2024 NFL Draft featured six quarterbacks being selected in the first round, tied with the 1983 Draft for the most ever taken in round one. 

Kosko sees a lot of talent in Penix, believing his ceiling is a former Offensive Rookie of the Year award winner.

“But if Penix can fix those [accuracy] issues, his ceiling of Justin Herbert is mouth-watering,” Kosko writes. “Herbert has been one of the NFL’s best regular-season quarterbacks of the past five seasons, just with an inability to win the big game in the playoffs.”

Playoff woes aside, Herbert is a good quarterback. He set the record in 2020 for most passing touchdowns by a rookie quarterback with 30. Herbert has two seasons with 30 or more touchdowns and no seasons with under 20 touchdowns; this would be great production for Penix. 

Herbert has a strong arm, able to push the ball deep, and has the ability to use his legs when he needs to, but not overly rely on them. These are traits that Penix also possesses, and Falcons fans should be thrilled if he does become a similar player to Herbert.

However, Kosko believes Penix’s floor is similar to a former NFL interception leader.

“The floor for Penix is a Jameis Winston-type career where his accuracy issues result in up-and-down performances with high highs and low lows,” Kosko wrote. 

Winston has never thrown fewer than 15 interceptions in a season in which he played 16 or more games, and threw 30 interceptions in 2019. Winston is a very boom or bust player, creating many explosive plays for his offense and then following it over with a disgusting turnover.

While Penix did have his share of poor throws in Week 17 against the Commanders, two of Penix’s three interceptions hit his receivers in the hands, not due to a poor decision by the quarterback.

Whatever the case may be, Falcons fans hope that Penix reaches that ceiling of a top-five quarterback in the NFL and not the floor.

More From Atlanta Falcons on SI