Oct 27, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; a pass to Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard (17) goes out of reach against the Atlanta Falcons in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Playoff Prediction Model Has Buccaneers at Higher Playoff Chance Than Falcons

Originally posted on Tampa Bay Buccaneers on SI
By River Wells | Last updated Nov 19, 2024 10:47 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers missed some opportunities early in the season, and most of the time, those missed opportunities were some of the most important ones. The Bucs lost to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5 in a brutal 36-30 overtime loss, and they also dropped a game to Atlanta at home 31-26. With that, Atlanta has the 2-0 sweep over Tampa Bay and can win the NFC South even with the same record as the Bucs.

It seems like that would spell doom for Tampa Bay, no? But not everyone is saying that. In fact, Pro Football Network's playoff predictor thinks quite the opposite.

PFN's playoff predictor runs 10,000 simulations to end the season every week to make new playoff odds, and this week's odds saw something interesting happen. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually have a higher percentage to make the playoffs from their model (47.4%) than the Atlanta Falcons do (45.5%):

Entering Monday Night Football, here are the new playoff chances for every team based on 10,000 simulations run by the Pro Football Network Playoff Predictor ⬇ pic.twitter.com/vZEqrSL0K5
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 18, 2024

This seems pretty silly on the surface — Atlanta is two games up on Tampa Bay, and technically three, since they need a tiebreaker — but Pro Football Focus noted below their tweet that they put strength of schedule into account. That would make this make a bit more sense, as the Bucs have a much easier schedule than Atlanta from here on out. Tampa Bay faces five opponents with three or fewer wins in its next seven games, while the Falcons have to contend with teams like the Los Angeles Chargers (so do the Bucs), the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders (who the Bucs have already beaten).

That being said, Tampa Bay still has to win those easy games. That should be a bit easier with players like Jamel Dean and Mike Evans back in the fold, but with a bottom-five defense in the NFL, they can't be caught off-guard.