Detroit Lions defensive end Josh Paschal celebrates a fumble recovery against the Bears as Caleb Williams walks off the field. Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Power rating leaves Chicago Bears longest shot for NFC North title

Originally posted on Chicago Bears on SI
By Gene Chamberlain | Last updated May 29, 2025 11:26 AM ET

The Bears continue to draw analysts' respect as an improved team but not one heading for the top of the NFC North during Ben Johnson's first year as coach.
In fact, according to ESPN guesstimates, they'll be in last place again.
The website released its power index projections for 2025 and Super Bowl chances on Wednesday and even after all of their offseason changes in personnel as well as head coach, the Bears have the worst NFC North power rating.
While it's the worst, they are at least ranked in the top half of the NFL at 16th. The Lions are fourth, the Packers eighth and Vikings 15th even with a QB who has no NFL experience.

Nick Wright officially picks the Bears to win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl. pic.twitter.com/fh3egWbLZx
— Harrison Graham (@HGrahamNFL) August 6, 2024

"So, who comes out ahead?" Seth Walder wrote. "The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%."
The Bears hired Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, obtained three interior offensive linemen and drafted receiver help in the first two rounds to assist Caleb Williams, but they're apparently so buried after a 5-12 season that even these moves weren't enough to elevate them.

the Bears OL ranked #5 in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric last year

(measures the rate linemen can sustain their blocks for 2.5+ seconds)

yet Fields was pressured & sacked at RECORD BREAKING RATES

that's Fields DNA - but sacks are DRIVE KILLERS

Caleb Williams sack… pic.twitter.com/W0N8ramIEj
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) September 2, 2024

The Bears have 11 games against teams ranked higher than them in the ESPN FPI system and only six games against teams rated below them.
ESPN has used this FPI predictive rating system since 2015.

Is Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson a thinking man's Mike Ditka? Players love his intensity so far, and apparently so do some others.https://t.co/bl667DbFO5
— Bears On SI (@BearsOnSI) May 22, 2025

The ESPN system is heavily slanted toward offensive teams as seven of their top 10 teams in the index are teams that ranked top 10 last year in offense.
Teams averaged 22.9 points last year in the NFL, a higher average than in 2022 or 2023 but still not where it was in 2021 (23.0).