Predicting Colts' Anthony Richardson vs Broncos

In brief, Richardson has a tough task ahead in Vance Joseph's defense. Notable players like linebacker Nik Bonitto and cornerback Patrick Surtain II will make life difficult on the young signal-caller, likely causing disruptions in passing rhythm.

With wide receiver Josh Downs reacy to play and Broncos cornerback Riley Moss out (knee), it will give Richardson a solid quick-win target, but there are other factors to account for from the extensive defense. Richardson must deal with linebackers Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper, who have 19 sacks.

Richardson will have a rough time passing against a defense that tops the NFL in sacks (47.0), so expect around 50% but not anything extravagant. If Richardson can top 60% or hit some key throws to Michael Pittman Jr. or Alec Pierce, there's a chance it's better than expected. However, it will be a difficult road to an efficient passing performance even if Denver's weakness defensively is against air.

Rushing

While Denver ranks 20th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (221.0), its run defense is elite (sixth, 94.7 yards allowed per game). This means that the Colts' offensive line must step up with arguably their best performance of the season.

Running back Jonathan Taylor will be essential in jarring loose Richardson's running ability for good gains. Given that Steichen's offense must have Richardson active in the ground game or limit what the scheme can implement on the field.

Denver has strong players like Zach Allen and John Franklin-Myers, so Colts linemen like Quenton Nelson, Tanor Bortolini, and Mark Glowinski will be key to opening the interior gaps. As for outside runs, Bernhard Raimann and Matt Goncalves will be responsible for sealing the edges. This is an area where Richardson can always have consistent success, albeit at a lesser rate this time around.

Bottom Line

Richardson has a big ask in this contest to take on the Broncos' defense. While he's athletic enough to make big plays and force defenses to pay, Joseph's setup is a bad matchup for the former 2023 fourth-overall pick.

That's why I'm being conservative with Richardson's stat line in this prediction, there will be multiple opportunities for the Florida alum to capitalize through the air or ground, but perhaps not enough for a victory on the road against Denver.

FINAL PREDICTION

16/33 (48.5%), 247 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception

9 rushes, 38 yards (4.2 average), 1 touchdown, 1 fumble