Predicting What Broncos Offer Tackling Machine LB Alex Singleton

The Denver Broncos hit big on the free-agent signing of linebacker Alex Singleton. He's a tackling machine, and the Broncos got him this past offseason on a cheap one-year deal. 

A decision will need to be made soon on whether to bring Singleton back and what type of deal he should receive. There's no doubt that Singleton has outplayed his $1.1 million contract. 

He has played in all 16 games this season, starting 11, and has racked up 152 combined tackles, with 93 being of the solo variety. Depending on his performance in the final game of the season, he could end up as one of the top single-season tacklers in Broncos history (using official stats). 

Michael Brooks has the most combination tackles at 175, and D.J. Williams has the most solo tackles at 106, again, using official stats. However, racking up tackles isn’t necessarily making impactful plays. 

If a lot of tackles made for an impactful player, Jessie Tuggle would have been in the Pro Football Hall of Fame a long time ago. Five of his seasons are in the top 20 for single-season combined tackles, yet his dynamic and impactful plays (interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks, etc.) fall well short of say, Brian Urlacher, a Hall-of-Fame player at the same position.

So just how impactful is Singleton? His tackles are efficient. He allows only 3.55 yards per rush on his solo tackles. 

That is very similar to other leading tacklers this season with similar numbers, including Zaire Franklin and Roquan Smith. Furthermore, Singleton has allowed four yards or greater on a stop only 41% of the time. These are valuable numbers.

That's where Singleton's value tends to end, though. He has no sacks, no interceptions, no defensive touchdowns, no fumble recoveries, and only one forced fumble. Those are high-impact type plays, which he doesn't provide. 

Singleton has defended only three passes this. Compare that to Franklin, a fellow unheralded draft prospect who was referenced earlier. Franklin has nearly the exact same tackle numbers, but he also has two sacks, two forced fumbles, and six passes defended. Not a significant amount of impact plays, but more than Singleton.

Smith, who is in line for a big payday this offseason, has a history of impact plays. This season he has three interceptions, 4.5 sacks, and six passes defended while having been traded during the season. His market value is at $17 million person season. The Broncos would be crazy to pay that type of money to re-sign Singleton.

The other factor to consider is tackles for a loss — another impactful play for a defender at the linebacker position. Singleton has a tackle for a loss on 6% of his solo tackles. 

That is up from his career average, but it is not a significant number. Smith has a tackle for a loss on 11% of his solo tackles, and Franklin is at 10%. Even fellow Broncos player — Josey Jewell — is at a rate of 11%.

A tackling machine is worth something, and Singleton deserves to have a payday. That salary should be commensurate with his impact on the field, though. Added to the fact that he will be 30 years old next season, which is the age when a linebacker’s career begins to decline, the Broncos need to be very careful with what they are willing to pay.

The Broncos' front office would be wise to offer Singleton a contract only slightly better than the one that Jewell received last season. Jewell was signed to a two-year deal worth $11 million. 

The Broncos could offer Singleton a two-year, $14 million contract at best. Perhaps less. If he declines, they should let him walk and look for a replacement in the draft.