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Predicting Where Top 5 Free Agent Quarterbacks Will Sign

Originally posted on The Spun | By Chris Rosvoglou | Last updated Mar 6, 2026 7:00 PM ET

There might not be a top-five quarterback available this offseason, but there are a few notable options out there for NFL teams in need of an upgrade.

Earlier this week, the Arizona Cardinals informed Kyler Murray that he'll be released at the start of the new league year. They're already on the hook for $36.8 million this upcoming season, but at least cutting him will prevent them from guaranteeing another $19.5 million.

Murray will join a free agency class that includes Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith and Malik Willis among others.

Without further ado, let's discuss where the top free agent quarterbacks will end up.

September 21, 2025; Santa Clara, California, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) during the first quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images© Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

Kyler Murray takes his talents to the NFC North.

According to ESPN’s Kevin Seifert, the Minnesota Vikings have Murray at the top of their offseason wish list. He'd provide an immediate upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, who completed 57.6% of his passes during the 2025 season for 1,632 yards with 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

We've seen former first-round picks, such as Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, revitalize their careers over the past few seasons. It wouldn't surprise us if Murray follows a similar path.

Oct 19, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Malik Willis (2) prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images© Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Malik Willis replaces Kyler Murray.

It was reported last week that Malik Willis will receive an offer from the Arizona Cardinals that includes an average annual salary of $30 million. That'd be quite the commitment for a quarterback who has only started in three games since 2023.

Why would the Cardinals commit to Willis? Well, he showed serious development under Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers, so why not link up with his brother, Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur.

Dec 21, 2025; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins (18) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images© Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Kirk Cousins takes his talents to the AFC.

The Atlanta Falcons and Kirk Cousins are heading for a breakup this offseason, there's no doubt about it. With that said, the veteran signal-caller should easily find a new home.

If the Miami Dolphins are moving on from Tua Tagovailoa, it would make sense for them to pursue a proven quarterback like Kirk Cousins. He can hold down the fort while head coach Jeff Hafley searches for his long-term answer.

Dec 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) stands in the huddle with offensive tackle Stone Forsythe (70), running back Ashton Jeanty (2), wide receiver Jack Bech (18) and tight end Brock Bowers (89) during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images© Thomas Shea-Imagn Images.

Geno Smith returns to one of his former teams.

The Las Vegas Raiders are set to release Geno Smith at the start of the new league year Wednesday, which makes sense considering they're on track to draft Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. Besides, Smith underperformed this past season with 3,025 yards, 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

Luckily for Smith, he could find another starting job in the AFC East. The New York Jets are in desperate need of another quarterback, especially with Aaron Glenn's job at stake. Maybe they'll reunite with Smith in the coming weeks.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) looks on after being sacked during the first half of the NFL Wild Card game against the Houston Texans at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on January 12, 2026.© Michael Longo/For USA Today Network-PA / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images.

What about Aaron Rodgers?

Last but certainly not least, let's talk about Aaron Rodgers. The 42-year-old quarterback played well this past season, completing 65.7% of his pass attempts for 3,322 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

While it's entirely possible Rodgers retires this offseason, a return to the Steelers makes too much sense. After all, he'd get to work with Mike McCarthy one last time before calling it a career.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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