Prediction paints troubling picture for Colts in 2025

As Shane Steichen gets set to embark on a pivotal third season as Indianapolis Colts head coach, one NFL analyst recently threw cold water on a potential 2025 breakthrough.

In a recent article, ESPN's Bill Barnwell discussed five teams he expects to decline next season. The Colts had the ignominious distinction of being the only one of the five to finish last season with a losing record.

Indianapolis went 8-9 in 2024, finishing two games behind the two-time defending AFC South champion Houston Texans.

During Steichen's first two seasons as head coach, the Colts are 17-17, missing the 2023 postseason after a Week 18 loss to the Texans.

Barnwell's reasoning for why Indianapolis might fall short of eight wins this season is sound. 

"The Colts beat the Steelers, but their other six wins came against teams with a combined record of 32-87," wrote Barnwell. "Six of their eight wins came over teams that finished with one of the 10 worst records."

He also noted the Colts benefited from facing backup quarterbacks in an inordinate amount of games, including Malik Willis, Mac Jones and Mason Rudolph, a trend they can't count on extending into 2025.

If correct, Indianapolis will have gotten progressively worse each season under Steichen, which could make a fourth season hard for upper management to justify, potentially leading to significant changes.

The Colts would surely have a different starting quarterback entering 2026 than either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones. Both were highly graded out of college and top 10 picks in their respective draft classes, but neither has lived up to expectations.

On Tuesday, Steichen officially named Jones their starting QB for Week 1 of the 2025 campaign, per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero.

With a second consecutive losing campaign, Indianapolis would be picking closer to (or in) the top 10 of the 2026 NFL Draft, when several talented quarterbacks are expected to be available, even if the biggest name, Texas quarterback Arch Manning, the nephew of former Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, remains in college.

It's difficult to imagine Indianapolis giving Steichen, the former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator, a second chance to develop a rookie quarterback following Richardson. It's easier to imagine the Colts wiping the slate clean and pursuing the next hot name in the coordinator ranks.

The 2025 season is a crucial one for Steichen in Indianapolis. And according to Barnwell's diagnosis, it might be his last.