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Previewing Potential Chiefs Divisional Playoff Opponents

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Colin Miller | Last updated Dec 27, 2024 1:15 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs officially clinched the top seed in the AFC against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas, giving them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Due to the structure of the NFL playoffs, the Chiefs will face the lowest-remaining team left in the AFC bracket, meaning they can't face the No. 2 or 3 seed in the divisional round (currently the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens).

However, the Chiefs could face any of the lower seeds depending on the outcomes of their games. Using Neil Paine's Elo model, there is a way to calculate the probability that the Chiefs face each of the lower seeds based on the current standings.

The two most probable matchups for Kansas City are the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers at 33 percent, who are also their most recent opponents. Both teams have struggled late in the season, which bodes well if they were to have to travel to Arrowhead Stadium and face the Chiefs.

Behind them are the Denver Broncos at 18 percent and the Los Angeles Chargers at 14 percent. The Chiefs are plenty familiar with both teams in the AFC West, but they would've had to defeat either the Bills or the Ravens to get to the divisional round, meaning they'd likely have some momentum heading into the game.

There is also an extremely small chance that the Chiefs could face the Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts or Cincinnati Bengals, as all three teams are still in playoff contention with two weeks remaining. However, there is a real chance that all three of those teams will be out of the race by the end of Week 17.