Projecting 2025 Stats for Cardinals QB Kyler Murray

2025 is do-or-die for Kyler Murray, as his future with the Arizona Cardinals could very well hinge upon this season.

Murray has been a quarterback who consistently puts up similar numbers every year on average. But what’s so frustrating is he’s doing it in the most inconsistent way possible on a week-to-week basis.

This has been by far the most frustrating aspect of him as a player that Cardinals fans have dealt with for so long, and the majority of them have finally had enough.

But can 2025 be the year that Murray rebounds and proves he’s still the guy? Could it be the year that he bottoms out?

Best case and worst case scenario for his passing stats including yards, touchdowns, and interceptions to go with my personal projection.

Passing yards

High: 3,800

Low: 3,100

Prediction: 3,500

Murray’s average passing yards per season hovers around 3,800 — that number will be his best case scenario this season.

Last year was one of his worst seasons, and he still tossed 3,851 yards. Considering nothing changed with the offense between coaching and personnel, I don’t see any reason why that would suddenly and drastically improve.

That’s also the reason why I could see a dip in those passing yards this year. It is difficult to see a scenario where Kyler is under 3,000 passing yards, but I do think we could see a career low from the numbers that he has posted over the course of a full season.

That number would be 3,600, but I’ll but I’m still going under on that total and not by a modest drop.

I don’t see this season being anything better than what he does on average. I’m still taking a career low in passing yards with my prediction, but I feel more confident, he will pass for lower than my prediction and higher.

Touchdowns

High: 22

Low: 17

Prediction: 20

If we were to take Murray’s touchdown totals from 2022 and 2023 and round them up to what he was on pace for those seasons, and then take the other four seasons for an average in his career, he’s sitting around 22 touchdowns per season. And just like we said for passing yards, that’s his best case scenario this year.

The touchdown average speaks more to me than the passing yards do, and the reason why it’s because we have seen several players come and go from the franchise in that time who have had a much more dramatic effect on touchdown total.

Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and now Marvin Harrison Jr all have their own separate, unique effects on touchdowns; yet Murray still has almost identical, passing touchdown, seasons, no matter how good his redzone players are.

If I were to look at the worst case scenario, I would also link it to our worst case scenario passing yards in that he would be looking at a career low and by a substantial number. Remember, nothing changed to get better, so it’s unlikely we will see much improvement.

Murray averages around 1.5 passing touchdowns per game and I’ll put him on the nose with a single touchdown pass per game.

I’m saying Murray is right on the dot for 20 touchdown passes this season. Even with high upside touchdown production from Harrison and a likely improvement from Trey McBride, I simply don’t see Murray being any better than he was last year.

Interceptions

High: 17

Low: 10

Prediction: 14

Once again, applying the same logic with his per game, average in his two injured seasons, Murray would have never posted a professional season with fewer than 10 interceptions; keep in mind some of those years, including last season, were not ones that had a high passing volume for him. so no matter what I don’t see a scenario, best case or worst case, we Murray is single digits.

I think this season has a dairy high chance for a career worst in interceptions. Marie absolutely collapsed in the second half of the season with turnovers after playing relatively clean football at the start and I think that’s closer to what he will be than otherwise.

Like I said with my worst case scenario as being one touchdown per game on the dot, I’ll say the same thing for interceptions.

Final Prediction

3,500 passing yards, 20/14 TD/INT

It would be really easy to go chalk and give Murray 3,800 passing yards with 22 passing touchdowns against 10 interceptions thanks to how consistently consistent he is with posting those numbers. But I simply think this will be his worst season in terms of playing an entire year.

“Expect to be disappointed and you’ll never be disappointed” won’t be able to work in 2025 if Murray truly doesn’t step up and do it for the entire year.

And a season like this? Arizona could/should be looking to move on in 2026.