
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- When Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen reversed course to take the Jaguars head coach job this offseason, droves of those following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had their torches and pitchforks at the ready.
They claimed then that it was about the way Coen went about his Buccaneers exit. 12 weeks into the 2025 season, though, and it has become clear what really fueled their fiery emotions -- they knew what they were losing.
The Jaguars' offense is not exactly a powerhouse unit. It has gotten better in recent weeks compared to a midseason slump, but it is roughly in the same ballpark in terms of EPA/Play and Success Rate that it was through Week 12 a year ago, both overall and in the passing game. With that said, the Jaguars' rushing attack has improved in both areas.
And with that in mind, the Jaguars' offense does seem to be taking strides since the bye week. They are scoring more points, putting together longer drives, and have overall improved since two brutal outings against the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Over the last month, the Jaguars are eighth in success rate and seventh in dropback success rate -- in short, they are moving the ball efficiently.
The primary issue has been the turnovers, which are out of Coen's control when they are player-caused. Trevor Lawrence has had interceptions in the end zone against the Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals and has had multiple dropbacks turn into defensive touchdowns, anchoring the Jaguars' EPA/Play. When excluding turnovers, the Jaguars are one of the 10 best offenses in football -- but Lawrence's turnovers have hamstring them.
In Tampa, though, the numbers are clear. Tampa has taken a step back in virtually every single are related to EPA/Play and success rate since losing Coen at offensive coordinator, and their current offense is very similar to the Jaguars outside of the Jaguars being a significantly better rushing team.
Sure, the Buccaneers have faced plenty of injuries at key spots, but this was true for them last year. It is also true about the Jaguars this year. So while injuries are likely a big reason the Buccaneers offense has taken a significant step backward, there is enough credence to think the downgrade from Coen as an offensive coordinator is another big reason. There simply aren't too many differences between what the Buccaneers have on hand this year compared to last year.
Coen will have better offenses in Jacksonville, and he needs his current one to improve over the next six weeks. But the Jaguars just need to look a few hours south to see why Coen is so valuable.
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