Queipo’s Cover 4: Payne Durham’s Blocking, Bucs’ Bubble Players

His double teams are also a real positive part of his game. When asked to double and climb, Durham has a strong knack for timing, landing his secondary shove cleanly and getting lateral displacement. His climb from there consistently gets him to the right spot to cover up linebackers and box safeties. Climbing well is a rare skillset that requires control, discipline, athleticism and strength – but rarely in unison. It’s an intricate dance where those traits have to rotate, turning 1-2 off while the others turn on and then cycling. Durham has found the rhythm to that dance and executes those climbs with balance and confidence.

Both of these areas feature him leveraging angles and speed gathering to win. On the split flows he weaponizes his 250+ pound frame, leading with a strong shoulder that knocks even the likes of Mykel Williams and Boye Mafe backwards. And on his best flows he will finish, bringing the defender to the ground.

Across all 85 reps I charted, his six best blocks share a commonality. Every one of them has him moving into contact with an angle. Not one is a base block from a standstill.

The Limitations

Durham has yet to establish himself as an all-around tight end. Across three seasons he has just 18 catches and averages only 0.70 yards per route run. The likelihood he develops into a threat in the passing game is very low. His best career trajectory is to become a Josh Oliver-type. A blocking first tight end who adds numbers to the box math and becomes a fun TE2/3 that teams are willing to invest real dollars into. But there is still a big gap between Durham’s current level as a blocker and Oliver, who is widely considered the standard for a blocking-first tight end. And that gap shows up most when the two players are asked to base block down-linemen. Where Oliver can handle those one-on-one assignments, Durham lacks the base/anchor to survive past initial engagement.

Against the Seahawks, Durham was repeatedly asked to base block defensive ends and even tackles, having to take on Leonard Williams one-on-one on multiple reps. That’s a recipe for disaster for him. There are both coachable and non-coachable reasons for why he is losing these matchups, which are admittedly the most difficult assignments possible. But there’s also a reason why Oliver is one of less than a handful of non-receiving threats getting mid-tier contracts. The coachable points settle on Durham’s hand placement. When it’s accurate and inside he maintains control and gives himself a fighting chance, even against the more massive matchups he faces. But Durham’s hand placement ends up outside a defender’s frame more often than it ends up inside. And when that happens, the power/anchor disparities get amplified.

That’s the second issue. Payne’s lower body strength is better than average for the position, but for the role he seems best-suited for, it’s not quite up to snuff to hang with the biggest of boys. That was the most common loss I charted across the eight games. It’s also the loss that never went away. The rest of his game did clean up. Through Week 6 I charted at least one complete whiff in every game, a climb where he never landed a hand on anyone. In Weeks 16, 17 and 18 there were none. His angles tightened, his climbs got cleaner, and his hands started finding the inside at the second level. But the anchor didn’t move. Durham lost a base block in Week 17 the same way he lost one in Week 1. He cleaned up the technique issue. The physical issue remained.

It also explains the difference in Durham’s run block grade between Week 5 against Seattle – his lowest graded game according to PFF (35.1) – and his highest graded game the week after against San Francisco (95.0). And it would appear former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard figured out that deployment was a net-negative, completely changing his role the following week against the 49ers.

That Week 6 matchup had him moving at the snap on the majority of his run blocking reps, almost always as a split-flow sealer. And that was all the difference in the world. Durham was knocking defenders back, controlling the point of attack and finishing with tenacity. The interesting concept going forward is how new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson will leverage Durham’s blocking skills. His best reps are in the same role that Cade Otton does best blocking. Split-flow. Who stays on the front side of the play? Who is asked to double or solo up an edge?

On one hand, having two tight ends who can motion as a puller or seal the backside gives the offense a lot of options and diversity, but only if they both can handle the other side of those assignments. Robinson doesn’t have to guess here. Grizzard already ran the experiment and published the results in back-to-back weeks. The question isn’t whether Durham can be a weapon in the run game. It’s whether an offense with two tight ends who win the same way can find enough of those reps to go around.

Finance: Possible Bucs’ 2027 Free Agent Targets

The 2026 season hasn’t started yet, but that doesn’t mean the Bucs aren’t already thinking about their 2027 roster. Advanced scouts will be evaluating pending free agents throughout this season. There’s a good chance the team already has a list of players they have some interest in. That doesn’t mean it is a target list. Much of who they might pursue next offseason will depend on the performance of their current players and their internal moves.

But it’s good to start considering who might be a roster fit at the right price. With that in mind here is the first of multiple positions that might be on the Bucs’ radar for 2027: interior defensive line. With Vita Vea currently without a contract extension, Calijah Kancey still trying to prove he can stay healthy and A’Shawn Robinson and Rakeem Nunez-Roches only signed for one year, defensive tackle is a potential big need for the Bucs in 2027.

Grover Stewart

If they want a veteran run stuffer at a discount from what Vea would cost, Stewart may be a target. He would provide scant-little of Vea’s pass rushing prowess but has one of the better run-stop rates in the class. He will turn 34 in 2027, so if he is still playing his contract should come in a little under what Tampa Bay is paying Robinson this year. I have his value at $9.8 million APY currently. Alternatively, if both Vea and Kancey aren’t seen as part of the team’s future, they may want to invest in a younger player to be a part of the defensive core. Three players might fit that bill.

Moro Ojomo

Ojomo is an intriguing prospect. A former seventh-round pick, he registered more pressures and sacks than teammate Jalen Carter put together in 2025. And as the Eagles have yet to extend Carter, it may be because they think the ROI on keeping Ojomo may be the better play. Logically, they can’t keep both after they already gave a strong deal to Jordan Davis, so Ojomo may still hit the market. The last time the Eagles let a rotational pass rushing interior lineman get to free agency, Milton Williams got $28 million per year from New England.

Ojomo’s pressure rate hasn’t approached Williams’ to this point in his career. As such, I don’t have his valuation quite as high. But I could see him getting $18 million per year on the open market with next year’s cap likely north of $325 million. His archetype is the polar opposite of Stewart. He’s an undersized, pass rushing 3-technique. An investment in him would be a tacit acknowledgement that the team has lost faith in Kancey ever getting to the heights they once thought he could.

Kobie Turner

Turner would be a splash of a signing. With 24 sacks with the Rams over the last three years and his pressure rate hitting 11.5% last year, Turner is on the precipice of superstardom. He is now going to play beside Myles Garrett which will likely amplify his talents and production. Turner is a three-down player who can both get after the passer and contribute as a run defender. A signing of this magnitude would show how much the team feels like a four-down-and-go front composed of him, Kancey (on his fifth-year option), Reuben Bain Jr. and possibly Yaya Diaby is necessary in the modern game. But it would also signal a change in how they structure the front as Turner and Kancey would be an undersized pairing. His best current comp is an inflated version of Osa Odighizuwa’s deal in 2024.

Gervon Dexter Sr.

Dexter would be a departure in style and archetype from Ojomo and Turner. He has flashed more than established himself as a consistent player. At 6-foot-6, 326 pounds, he’s bigger and could theoretically play nose tackle but has not graded out as an especially strong run defender. But he has plenty of traits that point towards his draft pedigree, and he’s kept his pressure rate at or above 10% over the past three seasons while posting 17 sacks. Dexter would be a bet on upside and development. But because he has posted some impressive sack and pressure numbers his price tag may match that of a more consistent player. I currently have his 2027 APY valuation at $18 million.

Forecast: Bucs’ Bubble Players Who May Impress in Training Camp

All eyes in training camp will be on the outside cornerback battle. It is the highest profile position battle. But there are quite a few bubble players who will be vying for roster spots who I will be interested in watching. For some, the position group math will be working against them. But for all, they possess one or more intriguing traits that makes it difficult to quit them.

WR Garrett Greene

The former West Virginia quarterback switched positions after Tampa Bay signed him as an undrafted free agent last year. His quick-twitch movements and incredible acceleration are quite impressive. Last preseason he ranked third on the team in receiving yards and second in yards per route run. His 100% catch rate and 3.0 average depth of target point to him being a reliable short-to-intermediate gadget player. Greene also returned one kick and two punts in that preseason. The punt returns went for 31 yards. If Greene is able to maintain and build upon last year he could make the Bucs think long and hard about keeping him on the roster over Kameron Johnson.

DT Jayson Jones

The Bucs have done a good bit to reshape their defensive line this offseason. Between signing A’Shawn Robinson, re-signing Rakeem Nunez-Roches and drafting DeMonte Capehart, Tampa Bay is trying to get bigger and stronger. The top of the depth chart at this position is rather set with Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Robinson. Beyond that things are more open. Elijah Roberts had a strong rookie season, but he’s a former fifth-round pick. If other players outperform him in training camp he can quickly fall down the depth chart because there is little investment in him at this point.

Enter Jayson Jones. The Bucs are very high on him after signing him to their practice squad last year. Jones never had the opportunity to show what he could do in pewter and red after suffering a torn biceps in practice and going on injured reserve after Week 3. That hasn’t tempered the Bucs’ excitement about the big man. What he did show in preseason last year with the Ravens is exciting. His power/strength profile is one that could help the team maintain their elite run defense without Vea on the field. I believe the back end of the defensive tackle depth chart is wide open. Don’t be surprised if Jones lays claim to one of those spots over Nunez-Roches.

OT Paul Rubelt

I profiled Rubelt earlier this offseason as the Bucs’ next developmental tackle, following in the footsteps of Ben Chukwuma. At 6-foot-10, he has the length and speed to guard the outside corner against even the fastest edge rushers. Rubelt’s physical profile is tantalizing, and his flashes of talent are just as impressive. Given the matchups he will face in the preseason there is a good chance he is going to look really good on tape. The roster math makes it difficult for him to crack the 53-man active roster. But with him being eligible for the extra practice squad spot from the international pathway program he will get at least a year to build up his talents.

Fun Fourth Down: Specific Bucs Matchups This Season I’m Excited To Watch

Week 1 at Bengals – Graham Barton vs. Dexter Lawrence

Lawrence is as true of a nose tackle as this league has. And he is still a handful for interior offensive linemen to handle. Barton has struggled against quick and strong nose tackles. He will be tested right from the get-go this season.

Week 3 vs. Vikings – Reuben Bain Jr. vs. Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill

Darrisaw and O’Neill are one of the better tackle tandems in the NFL. I expect Bain to line up on O’Neill’s side most often. But I would love to see him matchup against Darrisaw at least a few reps. No matter who he faces this week, it will be his first test of the season against elite competition who has the physical edge on him. That will be quite telling.

Week 6 vs. Steelers – Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke vs. Steelers Edge Rushers

The Bucs’ bookend duo is a top 3 unit in the NFL. The Steelers edge room might be the best and deepest with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig. This is one of the best positional matchups of the year, bar none. It will also answer the age-old question what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?

Week 14 at Ravens – Josiah Trotter vs. Lamar Jackson

There’s a good chance Trotter will have to spy Jackson on several reps. Can he keep up with Jackson’s elite athleticism? How will he handle the run/pass obligations that are unique to facing Jackson and the Ravens’ rushing attack? This will be must-see TV for anyone who follows the Bucs.

Week 15 and 18 against Saints – Tristan Wirfs vs. Chase Young

You can see I am a trenches guy. Young has had some of the best reps against Wirfs over the past two seasons. Sometimes there is just one player who always has your number. As a Rays fan, I watched Ben Francisco go 8-9 with five home runs and 12 RBIs against Andy Sonnanstine in their careers against each other. Is that what Young is to Wirfs, or can the Bucs’ stalwart beat his rival this season?