Neither former ESPN analyst Trey Wingo nor ex-NFL coach Eric Mangini liked questionable fourth-down decisions made in Week 5 by head coaches Nathaniel Hackett, Dan Campbell and Brandon Staley.
In overtime of a 12-9 loss to the Colts, Broncos head coach Hackett elected to pass from the Indianapolis 6-yard line instead of kicking a tying field goal. Mangini suggested Hackett is still learning how to adjust his coaching mid-game.
Here’s Hackett on the game’s final play. pic.twitter.com/J3UZPRuME6
— Vic Lombardi (@VicLombardi) October 7, 2022
"I can see making that call if [Russell Wilson] is having a great game ... but that's not how the game was going," said Mangini on The 33rd Team.
Per Football Database, the Lions' Campbell has been the most aggressive coach on fourth down over the past two seasons, attempting 59 conversions. He received praise last season for his aggressive nature.
In Week 5, however, a fourth-and-9 attempt by Campbell while down six against New England proved to be a bad call, even according to analytics.
---> DET (0) @ NE (6) DET has 4th & 9 at the NE 32
— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 9, 2022
Recommendation (MEDIUM): Field goal attempt (+2.2 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) J.Goff sacked at NE 45 for -13 yards (M.Judon). FUMBLES (M.Judon), RECOVERED by NE-K.Dugge pic.twitter.com/HVhdRkw59Q
The most head-scratching call of all was the fourth quarter decision by the Chargers' Staley to go for it on fourth down with his team near midfield and nursing a 30-28 lead. A punt would have left the Browns, who had no timeouts, scrambling to get into field goal range with a minute left. Instead, an incomplete pass allowed Cleveland to march into range. Rookie kicker Cade York missed a 54-yarder, and the Chargers won anyway.
Based on analytics, the surprising call was sound, but don't tell Wingo.
Chargers 4th-and-1 on own 46 with 1:13 left
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 9, 2022
WP Go: 84.1%
WP Punt: 78.9%
Model agreed with Brandon Staley's decision to go for it. Believe TV said 4th-and-2 but play by play says 4th-and-1.
"There's no way you can convince me from where they did it ... that was the percentage. I'm never gonna buy that," Wingo said on The 33rd Team.
Data show teams are increasingly likely to go for it on fourth down. In 2014, teams attempted 451 fourth-down conversions. That number has increased each season since. Last year, teams attempted 793 conversions, with a 53.1 percent success rate. So far this season, teams are converting on 48.9 percent of fourth-down attempts.
NFL coaches increasingly embrace analytics, which can inform decision-makers. But if coaches are going to strictly rely on data, what's the point of having a coach at all?
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