Raiders Playoff Projections: Las Vegas is Crashing Out

After beating the Jets in Week 8, the Raiders still had an eye toward the playoffs. But after getting buried by the 49ers, Las Vegas is nearly out of the playoff race. 

Sitting at 4-5, the Raiders are only one game out of the playoffs. But given the performances against quality teams and the difficulty in the schedule, Las Vegas has a tough climb to find the playoffs.

What the models are saying: 

The Raiders are under 10 percent in both FTN Fantasy and The Athletic’s playoff projection models. FTN Fantasy is a bit more pessimistic, giving the Raiders a 4.7 percent chance to reach the postseason, while The Athletic slots the Raiders at seven percent. 

Las Vegas’ chances to make the postseason never surpassed 50 percent, even after the 3-0 start. But just six weeks ago it was over 40 percent. Since that hot start the Raiders have gone 1-5 and nearly dropped out of the race completely.

One issue for the Raiders is the quality of opponents. Las Vegas has picked up four wins against four bottom feeders in the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints and Jets. When the Raiders have had to play playoff-caliber opponents, they have been outclassed. 

The Raiders still have another matchup with the Chargers and take on the Cardinals and Titans before the season ends. But that will not likely be enough to make it to the postseason. If the Raiders are going to see the playoffs, they’ll need to start beating competent teams. 

An eye towards the draft

Despite general manager John Spytek saying the Raiders weren’t giving up on this season, trading away a quarterback with the second-most touchdown passes in the NFL for a draft pick is tanking. 

The Raiders are not going to shut down some of their best players like last season, as the number one pick in the draft is out of the question. But Las Vegas has a better chance at landing a top five pick than making the playoffs. 

FTN Fantasy gives the Raiders a 9.2 percent chance to end up picking in the top five. With how poorly the defense and running game have fared, if the Raiders see any downturn in the passing game with Mendoza, the losses could pile up. 

That is perfectly fine though. The Raiders are in a rebuild. The 3-0 start made the playoffs a realistic dream at one point this season, but that was never the actual plan. Adding talent in the 2027 offseason to give Mendoza the best chance to succeed is the key.