
In an NFL season that has had more parity than any in recent memory, the Los Angeles Rams had appeared to separate from the pack.
Entering Week 16, the Rams possessed a league-best 11-3 record and ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive points allowed. The wide receiver combination of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams had proved to be unstoppable, helping quarterback Matthew Stafford play at an MVP level. With a win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night, the Rams' chances of winning both their division and claiming the top-overall seed would rise to over 90%.
Despite Adams being sidelined with a hamstring injury, the Rams looked well on their way to their 12th victory of the year. Thanks to two mind-boggling interceptions from Sam Darnold, the Rams possessed a 16-point lead with just over eight minutes remaining.
Yet in a catastrophic series of events, the Rams not only blew what seemed like a sure victory but also significantly hampered their ability to win their second Super Bowl title in five years.
The Seahawks' win probability was as low as 2.7% with 9:04 left trailing 30-14 in their comeback win over the Rams.
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 19, 2025
Seattle's chances of earning the #1 seed in the NFC are now 52% (LA now at 21%). Seattle's odds dropped to 4% when they trailed by 16 points.
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As unstoppable as the Rams have seemed this season, it’s clear that their contention window has an expiration date. The only starting quarterback in the NFL older than the 37-year-old Stafford is Aaron Rodgers, while the 32-year-old Adams has been slowed by hamstring and oblique injuries.
And while they might be projected to have the seventh-most cap space in the NFL, they will have to use a significant portion on an extension to Nacua. The NFL’s all-time leader in yards per game will be entering the last season of his rookie contract and likely seek a deal along the lines of Ja’Marr Chase’s recent four-year, $161Mextension with the Cincinnati Bengals.
None of this is to say that the Rams will fall off a cliff in 2026, but it’s hard to imagine them having a better opportunity than they have this year. The rest of the NFC has either been decimated by injuries, whether it be the Green Bay Packers seeing All-Pro Micah Parsons go down with a torn ACL, the San Francisco 49ers losing both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner from their defense or, in the case of the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, massively underperforming.
If the Rams were to lock up the top overall seed, they would need to win just two games in SoFi Stadium to advance to the Super Bowl. While that pathway exists, it would require the Rams to win out against the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons and the Seahawks to lose to either the Carolina Panthers or the 49ers.
To further complicate matters, a Seahawks loss to the 49ers would drag San Francisco back into the mix and give them the division if they are able to also beat the Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears.
Simply put, the Rams no longer control their destiny and are now staring at the prospect of winning three straight road games to reach the Super Bowl. While the Rams are 6-1 at home this season, their mediocre 5-3 road record includes losses to the Panthers, Seahawks and Eagles, three potential January destinations if the Rams are wild-card entrants.
It will be easy to explain why the Rams are on the road on wild card weekend. https://t.co/821BMoVtqW
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) December 19, 2025
Though the Rams have had postseason success on the road in the Sean McVay era, including a last-second defeat of the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers during their 2021 championship run, only four teams have ever won three straight road games to make the Super Bowl. If the Rams are unable to become the fifth, they will look back at their collapse against the Seahawks as the turning point in a potential storybook season.
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