Ranking the three teams atop the AFC South

2. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)

Despite having one of the deepest collections of offensive talent in the league, the Colts' fate for the rest of the regular season and beyond will rest on the shoulders of quarterback Daniel Jones. After playing at an MVP level over the season's first half, Jones committed seven turnovers in consecutive games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons, then completed just 56% of his passes for 382 yards in back-to-back losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Texans.

Jones' limitations have been particularly noticeable in late-game situations. The Colts went three-and-out on their last four possessions in the fourth quarter and overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs, and a potential game-winning drive against the Texans stalled after Jones threw three straight incompletions.

As good as Jonathan Taylor has been, Jones' second-half regression has allowed defenses to devote even more attention to slowing him down. The star running back has averaged just 62 rushing yards over the Colts' last three losses, a stark drop-off from his season-long average of 92.3

Given that the Colts' defense is largely a bend-but-don't-break unit, ranking ninth in points allowed but 21st in total yards, their only chance of a division title will be with their offense returning to their historically efficient first-half ways. This will be easier said than done, however, as all five of their remaining matchups are against teams with winning records.

1. Houston Texans (7-5)

The Texans' road to a third straight division title has featured its fair share of bumps. Three consecutive losses to open the season put them in an early hole, and a pair of one-score defeats to the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos left them a deep division hole. 

Yet as great teams often do, the Texans have rounded into form at exactly the right time, and the lion's share of the credit has to once again go to the defense. The unit ranks first in both points and yards allowed, and their complete domination of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills shows they can hold up against even the league's best offenses.

While the Texans defense has been dominant all season long, it has been the progression of their offense that has helped turn their one-score defeats into victories. The emergence of Jayden Higgins as a true second option alongside Nico Collins has opened up the passing attack, and both Davis Mills and C.J. Stroud, who made his return on Sunday after missing three games with a concussion, have played efficient if unspectacular football.

As with the other offenses in this division, the Texans' attack has its limitations, particularly with a rushing game that ranks in the bottom 10 in both yards and yards per attempt. Yet while the Jaguars and Colts defenses are middle-of-the-pack, the Texans' dominance at all three levels gives them a leg up, particularly if Stroud can continue to play mistake-free football.