Sep 7, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) passes the ball during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Ravens' Long-Term Odds Remain Unchanged Following Loss

Originally posted on Baltimore Ravens on SI
By Henry Brown | Last updated Sep 12, 2025 5:00 PM ET

The Baltimore Ravens entered their regular season as one of the NFL's likeliest teams to seize their conference's top seed, and even after their embarrassing collapse to the rival Buffalo Bills, their dream remains similarly alive.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell analyzed the AFC's top contenders, comparing the site's Football Power Index indicators of how well each team is built for regular season dominance after a week of results compared to where everyone was projected at the offseason's end. The Bills very publicly got the better of the Ravens, but as the writer goes on to explain, Baltimore showed plenty of positive signs that the algorithm took into account.

Their chances lightly sank from 20.4% to 16.8%, giving Buffalo a window to seal the runaway-first place odds, but FPI stands firm in its belief of Baltimore's roster. Lamar Jackson's usually-high scoring offense missed on some of the sort of plays they've been known to nail, while their lauded defense turned in what already looks to be attributed as a fluke performance.

"The Ravens recovered only one of three fumbles and went 1-for-3 in the red zone, the latter a surprise for the league's most efficient red zone offense a year ago," Barnwell wrote. "The Ravens averaged nearly 9 yards per play, the most any team has generated against a McDermott defense since he was the coordinator for the Panthers in 2016 and went up against eventual league MVP Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan."

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

"If you want to pin credit for the fumbles and the red zone stops on the Bills' defense, you're entirely within your right to do so, but FPI sees this as a dominant performance by a truly great offense."

That defensive disappointment made for one of the biggest storylines from a matchup with no shortage of drama, with the Ravens' secondary exiting the offseason with more hype than arguably any other unit in the NFL. They added in the offseason to build around their already-developing stars, and were aware enough of their shortcomings and unpleasant parallels to last year's slow start to unite and reflect for a defense-only dinner.

What was said remains private, but the squad sounds ready to move on, and so does the formula.

It's learned to more-or-less account for these blown Ravens leads, which they're known to cough up at least once every now and again. Fans and analysts will never not think of the Ravens' recurring knack for losing in the clutch when ranking the likeliest Super Bowl winners, but ESPN's cold math remains respectful of the Ravens' strong regular season reputation, and that's what it's here to judge.