Ravens vs. Chiefs prediction, odds, best bets, expert picks, props for 'Thursday Night Football'

John LanFranca's Ravens vs Chiefs Prediction Against the Spread: Bet the Underdog

Thursday, Sept. 5

8:15 p.m. ET

NBC/Peacock

Ravens +3 (-115, BetMGM)

By John LanFranca

Blindly betting on John Harbaugh as an underdog has been a highly profitable angle. As the Ravens head coach, Harbaugh is 70-52-6 (57.4%) against the spread when his team is catching points. When that underdog status has warranted them being a dog of three or more points, that record jumps to 25-15, covering at a 62.5% rate.

The story of the Chiefs and Ravens AFC Championship Game has been discussed ad nauseam: Baltimore went away from a rushing attack that made them the top seed in the conference. However, when they did run the football, Lamar Jackson and former running back Gus Edwards combined to average 6.7 yards per attempt. For as strong as the Chiefs defense was during the latter half of the 2023 season, their ability to stop the run was the clear weakness. Kansas City ranked 26th in yards per carry allowed last season, surrendering 4.5 yards per rush.

Baltimore will not make the same mistake twice, so I expect it to test the Chiefs front seven on the ground early and often. Jackson, in particular, has a history of success against Steve Spagnuolo's Chiefs defense, averaging 71 rushing yards per game, at an astounding 6.5 yards per rush in their regular-season meetings. Adding in a fresh Derrick Henry should only help the chances of Baltimore staying ahead of the chains all night long.

For a game that looks and feels like a toss-up, I am glad to be getting three points and would even pay -120 to get them. Jackson is undefeated against the spread as an underdog over the last three years, and I will be backing him on Thursday night again.

Pick: Ravens +3 (-115)

Kyle Murray's Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: An Isiah Pacheco Over

Thursday, Sept. 5

8:15 p.m. ET

NBC/Peacock

Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions (-115, BetMGM)

By Kyle Murray

The Chiefs kick off the NFL season on Thursday night for the second year in a row thanks to their back-to-back Super Bowls. Kansas City is a three-point home favorite, so this projects to be a close game. That benefits Pacheco's potential work in the passing game.

Pacheco sets up to have a really nice role early in the season. Firstly, he has gone over this number in nine of his last 13 games (including the playoffs) to end last season, and now the Chiefs will be without Jerrick McKinnon (free agent) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (injured reserve).

The only backups behind Pacheco are Carson Steele, who's listed as a fullback, and Samaje Perine, who was just signed after being cut by the Broncos. Perine is so new that he didn't even have an official jersey number yet as of Wednesday morning.

I'm projecting Pacheco to see a lot of three-down work in this one. As a result, he projects for nearly five targets and 3.65 receptions in this game.

Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 2.5 Receptions (-115)

Grant Neiffer's Ravens vs Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: Lamar Jackson Over

Thursday, Sept. 5

8:15 p.m. ET

NBC/Peacock

Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113, FanDuel)

By Grant Neiffer

Jackson has been the best rushing quarterback in the NFL for years. Even with the addition of Derrick Henry, I expect that to be the case again this year.

Jackson hit the over at this number in 50% of games last season including the playoffs, but he has a good matchup to start this season. The Chiefs have one of the best pass defenses in the league and are susceptible to the run. They were ninth last season in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs, and I expect the Ravens to be using a lot of designed runs and option plays for Jackson, with Henry taking some of the attention away from him.

I have the reigning MVP projected for close to 60 yards and would hit this line up to 54.5.

Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Derek Farnsworth's Ravens vs Chiefs Player Prop Prediction: Derrick Henry to Score

Thursday, Sept. 5

8:15 p.m. ET

NBC/Peacock

Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (-120, DraftKings)

By Derek Farnsworth

My favorite bet for the season opener between the Ravens and Chiefs is for Henry to score a touchdown.

Even though Henry has hit the age (30 years old) where we typically see running backs decline, he's not your average running back. More importantly, he doesn't have much competition for carries. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are no longer on the team, while Keaton Mitchell will start the season on injured reserve.

Coach speak is always tough to trust, but Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Todd Monken have hinted that they want to get the "big dog" 300+ carries this season.

A matchup against the Chiefs lines up well for Henry, as Kansas City was third in EPA against the pass and 28th in EPA against the run in 2023. Henry is coming off a down year, but he's now playing behind a better offensive line and in a much better offense as a whole.

I'm sure he'll lose some goal-line carries to Lamar Jackson throughout the season, but I think the Ravens will want to welcome him to the team with a few carries when they get near the end zone.

Pick: Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer (-120)