Recent Cowboys' coaching news likely closes the door for three-year starter's return

It seems insane to me that only a little bit over two years ago, Dallas Cowboys fans were genuinely mad at a Pro Bowl snub that I wouldn't ever have seen coming: Safety Jayron Kearse.

In 2021, his first year with the Cowboys, Kearse surprisingly flourished under Dan Quinn's scheme, which earned him a hybrid role where he blurred the line between linebacker and safety. Although many saw him as a special teams candidate, Kearse quickly became a defensive standout.  

Back then, before comparing his stats to Harrison Smith's (Kearse had him beat), I wrote, "Kearse represents the biggest Pro Bowl snub for the Dallas Cowboys in 2021. He's been one of the biggest surprises of the year. He's turned into a full-time strong safety for the Cowboys that consistently makes plays when defending the run and in pass coverage."

Fast forward to 2024 and in all likelihood, Kearse won't be back to the Cowboys. Quinn, who's defensive identity revolved around such hybrid players, is now head coach of the Washington Commanders and it's tough to see Mike Zimmer buying into Quinn's vision for Kearse.

The 30-year-old safety is set to hit free agency and his decline can be seen both on film and in the numbers. Kearse went from owning the second best PFF coverage grade on the team in 2021 to being 25th last season while allowing a catch in 81% of targets. His missed tackle percentage skyrocketed from 4.1% to 10.7%. More than double!

To make matters bleaker for his chances to return: The Cowboys are also in a position where moving on from a safety doesn't mean having to go get one. They already have Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson, who have proven to be capable starters. Additionally, Juanyeh Thomas and Markquese Bell (who will likely transition back to playing safety) are both promising athletes who could thrive on Zimmer's defensive scheme.

Jayron Kearse contract projection

Kearse is projected to land a solid deal in free agency after three years starting with the Cowboys, per our own A to Z Sports' contract projection, one of 105 NFL free agents:

Kearse is coming off of perhaps the worst year of his career. Allowing 34 catches on 41 targets, it was the highest catch rate allowed in any season. Combine that with his first year with a missed tackle rate north of 10% and it paints a picture of a player who may be past his peak.

Still, Kearse is a veteran with plenty of good years to draw upon and that has a place on an NFL team. The key will be convincing teams he can get back to the stout run defense that was the bedrock of his play for much of his career. His best path forward would be to sign a deal similar to the one Damontae Kazee signed with Pittsburgh last year.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
Projected Contract: 2 years, $6M, $3.0M APY, $2M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $2.0 Million