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New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) scores a touchdown on punt against Green Bay Packers punter Daniel Whelan (19) in the second quarter during their football game Sunday, September 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin. Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

Saints vs. Packers: Odds, Prediction, And Money Line

Originally posted on New Orleans Saints on SI
By Kyle Mosley | Last updated Dec 23, 2024 1:17 PM ET

The Green Bay Packers (10-4) will host the New Orleans Saints (5-9) at Lambeau Field on Monday Night Football. Tonight's game is a Week 16 matchup that heavily favors the home team who is all too familiar with frigid conditions. However, with playoff implications on the line for Green Bay, New Orleans would love to play "SPOILER" in this primetime showdown is drawing significant attention from bettors.

Odds and Spread

The Packers initially opened as 12.5-point favorites, but the line has now moved to -14 or even -14.5 at some sportsbooks. This significant spread highlights the perceived disparity between the two teams, particularly given the Saints' injury challenges and the Packers' strong home-field advantage.

Moneyline

The moneyline heavily favors the Green Bay Packers:

Packers: -900
Saints: +600

Currently, Green Bay has a 90% chance of winning against the Saints, with a probability of only 13-14% to win.

Still, just as Han Solo told C-3PO in Star Wars, "Never tell me the odds." New Orleans has plenty to prove to themselves in tonight's clash. The Saints should cover the spread.

Over/Under

The total for this game is set at 42.5 points, whereas others have 42. This relatively low number reflects the Saints' offensive struggles and the potential for inclement weather, with temperatures expected to be around 29 degrees at kickoff and a slight chance of precipitation.

Betting Trends and Insights

This season, the Packers are 8-6 against the spread (ATS).
Green Bay has been particularly strong at home, going 4-3 ATS and 5-2 overall at Lambeau Field.
The Saints are 6-8 ATS this season.
Green Bay has a 7-0 record (5-2 ATS) against teams with losing records this season.

Iain MacMillan for SI wrote:

Spencer Rattler gave the Saints enough of a spark last week to come within a two-point conversion of upsetting the Commanders, but let's not forget he ranks 41st out of 43 quarterbacks this season (100+ snaps played) in both EPA + CPOE Composite and adjusted EPA per play.

Key Factors Influencing the Odds

Several factors are contributing to the lopsided odds:

Saints Injury Report: The Saints will be without starting quarterback Derek Carr and star running back Alvin Kamara.

Weather: The cold Wisconsin weather gives Green Bay an additional edge. The Packers are 27-8 straight up and 20-13-2 ATS at Lambeau Field between Weeks 15-18 since 2000[3].

Momentum: The Packers have won four of their last five games, while the Saints have lost two of their previous three. They must keep pace in the Wild Card Race as the NFC North's top teams, Detroit and Minnesota, will be battling for the top seed in the conference.

Playoff Implications: Green Bay is eyeing a wild card spot, providing extra motivation.