Scout's view: Is Sam Howell the answer at QB for Commanders?

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL.

Washington's Sam Howell leads the NFL with 3,339 yards passing, an impressive figure suggesting to many that the second-year Commanders QB is a rising star. The truth, however, is Howell isn't nearly as good as his raw stats indicate.

Washington (4-8) is last in the NFC East and often behind early in games, requiring Howell to pass a lot — his 40.5 attempts per game are roughly three more than the next active QB, Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. More passing attempts, of course, equate to more passing yards.

Let's dig deeper.

Howell has the No. 21-ranked QBR, a metric released by ESPN in 2011 that incorporates a QB's contributions to winning, including how he impacts the game on passes, rushes, turnovers and penalties. It's much more reflective of a QB's true value than the traditional passing rating. (Middling QBs Justin Fields of Chicago and Desmond Ridder of Atlanta are 23rd and 25th, respectively, in QBR. Dallas' Dak Prescott is No. 1.)

The Commanders have a 67.79% passing play percentage, the highest pass-play selection in the NFL, and roughly half of Howell's passing yardage has come in yardage after the catch. The Commanders have the second-highest YAC (1,664 yards). From my observations, most of that production has come on short-range passes (zero to nine yards) in which receivers have used their skills rather than anything stellar by Howell. 

Before the 2022 NFL Draft, I wasn't impressed with Howell, grading the former North Carolina standout as a fifth- to seventh-round pick. The Commanders justified my evaluation, picking him in the fifth round with the 144th overall selection. Many of the negatives I saw on Howell's college game film have carried over to the NFL. 

Over the past week, I evaluated Howell on game tape from 12 games this season. On the positive side, Howell — who's 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds — is tough, scrappy and has good mobility. His best moment this season, a touchdown pass as time expired in Philadelphia to force overtime, impressed me.

However, game film reveals Howell has three major issues that tell me he's not the answer at QB for the Commanders: 

1. Sitting duck in the pocket

Howell, who was sacked 116 times at North Carolina, has endured 55 sacks this season, the most in the NFL by far, per StatMuse. If he weren't athletic, this sack total would be higher because Washington's offensive line is one of the league's worst. 

With that said, Howell hasn't helped himself by obsessively focusing on pass-rushers while losing sight of his receivers. He has taken a league-leading 375 yards in losses on sacks, a reason for Washington's No. 18 ranking in third-down efficiency.