The Seattle Seahawks seem to have a type of quarterback who they like to take chances on. While Sam Darnold and Geno Smith's games differ in a lot of ways the one thing they have in common is that they had both been previously written off by multiple teams around the NFL.
After riding the sidelines for almost a decade, Smith came out in the 2022 season and opened the post Russell Wilson era for Seattle with a bang, showing he had vastly improved his game since he'd last been a starter for the New York Jets back in 2014.
Darnold went through a similar transformation, initially bombing with the Jets early in his career then working his way around the league in brief stops with Carolina, Denver and San Francisco before landing with the Minnesota Vikings last season - when he had his "ain't write back" moment.
Darnold's transformation into a top-10 talent was even more radical than the development Smith went through, but some analysts can't seem to shake their early perceptions of him - and his last two games with the Vikings only reinforced those flawed looks.
That's why we're consistently seeing the Seahawks ranked 17th in the NFL after the draft, and why some analysts don't see this as a potential playoff team.
For example, Tyler Sullivan at CBS Sports came out with a ranking of all 16 teams in the NFC earlier this week and he only had the Seahawk ranked 13th, ahead of the lowly Panthers, Giants and Saints. The reason? A perceived big step back at quarterback.
"I think Seattle downgraded at quarterback. Yes, Sam Darnold (27) is significantly younger than Geno Smith (34), but I fear that Darnold's high level of play in 2024 was mostly due to the unbelievably favorable situation he found himself in with Minnesota. Just about any quarterback should be able to put up numbers with that collection of talent..."
It is fair to say that the Vikings' offensive supprting cast is superior to what Darnold will have to work with in Seattle this year. However, the idea that any QB could have thrived in that situation is where we cry foul.
For those that didn't get a chance to actually watch Darnold play aside from the brilliant comeback win he posted against the Seahawks - Darnold elevated his game to a level that seemed impossible early in his career. His arm talent was always there, but Darnold's ability to read the field and process his options took a radical step forward, enabling him to take full advantage of a loaded skill group.
The key difference we see is a perception that Darnold had a really, really good offensive line last year with the Vikings and he'll be trading that in for a really, really bad one with the Seahawks. While it's true Seattle's front five is bad - Minnesota didn't exactly have an elite unit in the trenches. If that had been the case, they wouldn't have signed Ryan Kelly and Will Fries and drafted Donovan Jackson - effectively turning over three starting positions this offseason.
The Seahawks probably should have done something similar, but for now Grey Zabel at left guard appears to be their only new starter out of the five they put on the field last season. In any case, Darnold didn't have an awesome offensive line last year by any means - and he had to take a big step forward in how he handles pressure.
Assuming Darnold can carry over that characteristic and continue improving his reads, we expect he'll play much closer to the level we saw in Weeks 1-16 than in the two games at the end of the year when he faced two very tough defenses, including one in his first career playoff start.
As with any team a lot can go wrong during the season, but on paper this is very far from only the 13th best team in the NFC.
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