Should Buccaneers Really Extend Baker Mayfield This Offseason?

That wouldn't be a great idea, though. The Buccaneers should wait until the end of the season to decide what to do with Mayfield, and here's why.

Why Buccaneers should wait on Baker Mayfield's extension

There's still concern with Mayfield's play

We've seen Mayfield play very good football. He threw over 40 touchdowns in 2024 under offensive coordinator Liam Coen, cementing his career revitalization. He also played at an MVP caliber during the first half of 2025, carrying the team to numerous last-second wins and dazzling NFL audiences with his scrambling heroics. All that is worth north of $50 million — what happened next is not.

It was a tale of two Mayfields last year. According to SumerSports, Mayfield started out the year from Week 1-8 with a +0.055 EPA/Play, good for 17th in the league among 40 qualifiers. That number careened to -0.060 from Weeks 9-17, ranking 31st of 48 qualifiers — he wasn't just bad, he was among the worst quarterbacks in the league. His deep ball accuracy was shambolic, going from 33.3% in Weeks 1-8 (14/42 from 20-plus yards out) to 25.9% in Weeks 9-18 (7/27). He also faced a significant drop in yards per attempt, too, going from 7.13 YPA in Weeks 1-8 to 6.47 in Weeks 9-18, and his interceptions quadrupled, throwing two in Weeks 1-8 and then nine in Weeks 9-18.

The current excuse for this drop in play is injuries, and Mayfield did, indeed, suffer them. Mayfield dealt with shoulder, knee, bicep and oblique injuries across the year, and he played through them (save for one half in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams), but injuries definitely aren't all of it, as there are some concerning recurring patterns in his play.

Mayfield's deep accuracy has always been a huge concern, as he ranked 33rd out of 38 qualifying QBs in throws 20-plus yards out in 2023 (23/79, 29.1%) and 28th out 37 in 2025 (21/69, 30.4%). He has always been a prolific fumbler, fumbling the 12th most of 48 qualifiers in 2023 (8), the most of 46 qualifiers in 2024 (13) and the most of 45 qualifiers in 2025 (11). He also takes a ton of sacks, ranking 6th of 48 QBs in 2023 (40), ninth of 46 QBs in 2024 (40) and ninth of 45 QBs in 2025 (36). His propensity to hold on to the ball and be punished for it is a recurring theme throughout his tenure with the Bucs, not just when he's hurt.

His outlier is in 2024, where he ranked 10th of 39 qualifying QBs (22/56, 39.3%). All of Mayfield's best metrics have come with Liam Coen, which begs the question of whether or not Mayfield needs the perfect offensive mind to make him a truly great quarterback. He battled through injury last year, but his drops in play had a lot to do with negative tendencies we've seen from him when he hasn't been injured, and there's good reason to wonder if those things can truly get better as his career goes along.

The Bucs could be about to rebuild

There's also a matter of where the Bucs are at elsewhere. Many fans were shocked that head coach Todd Bowles was retained after a disastrous collapse from 6-2 to 8-9, especially given that Bowles has won the division close every year he's been head coach otherwise. Jason Licht has been under some heat, too, as a lack of free agent splashes or trades has left some big holes in Tampa Bay's roster.

There is a strong possibility that the Buccaneers don't improve or regress in 2026, and if that happens, Bowles is certainly gone. There's a possibility, then, that Licht would go with him, and if that happens, Tampa Bay is in for a rebuild. Older players like Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr. and Chris Godwin could all be on the way out in a year or two, and the Bucs could have to attract a new head coach or a new head coach and general manager.

If that is all to happen, the Buccaneers would not want to be tied up in a Mayfield deal that has him take up over 15% of the salary cap. It would be a tougher sell for a new coach or a potential new general manager, particularly if Mayfield has another down year as he did at the end of 2025. Cap room would be cleared by getting rid of other players, but if Mayfield's deal is hindering the team's ability to improve around him in 2027, it would be tough to bring potential coaching or general managing candidates to the Bucs.

For that reason, it would be best to wait on a Mayfield extension and figure out what the team is doing at HC and GM first.

Final thoughts

Mayfield is a good quarterback. He's shown that he can play at a high level, especially if given the right tools around him and if he's playing under a coordinator who knows exactly what he can and cannot do, much like Coen. There's a chance that Mayfield clicks with new OC Zac Robinson and has a very good year, and if he does, the Buccaneers are likely to be a successful team that will keep head coach Todd Bowles around. If that happens, the Bucs can happily extend him then, as they will know for sure they have their man for the future.

If it doesn't, though, and the Bucs clear house in 2027, they wouldn't want to be stuck with a big Mayfield deal. There's too much concern on his end to warrant a rash move now, so it would be best to simply let him play out the final year of his contract and see what happens in Tampa Bay's future next offseason. Things could look a lot different for the Bucs next year, so it would be wise to see what happens this year with Mayfield, Bowles and Licht first.

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