Should the Dolphins Move on From Tua?

The Dolphins haven’t met expectations following their trade for Tyreek Hill in 2022, which many expected would vault them into contender status.

However, some of that can be attributed to factors other than Tagovailoa, such as the porous offensive line and middling defense. However, when looking at the stats in 2025, the blame for Miami’s 1-3 start falls largely on their quarterback’s shoulders.

Per ESPN’s Sam Hoppen, Tagovailoa’s advanced statistics aren't those of a $200+ million quarterback. Per ESPN’s Sam Hoppen, he ranks 28th in success rate, 32nd in turnover-worthy play rate, 26th in clean pocket EPA/play, and 21st in pressure to sack rate.

In short, the Dolphins’ offense has by no means been great, but their quarterback has been a hindrance, not a help.

To be clear, Tagovailoa hasn’t necessarily been bad, but he doesn't have the traits to vault him and the Dolphins to a championship-caliber level. He lacks the mobility needed to extend plays—something that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle thrive on— as well as the arm talent needed to maximize their talents fully.

In the early years of the Tua/Tyreek/Waddle connection, Mike McDaniel was able to use his quarterback’s high-level anticipation to get the ball to Waddle and Hill downfield, but defenses have figured out how to keep that from happening.

This is evidenced by PFF’s passing depth data. In 2023, when the Dolphins ranked first in yards per game and second in points per game, Tua had the eighth-most attempts and the fifth-most completions of throws 20+ yards downfield. Tua was deadly attacking the deep middle of the field due to his confidence and anticipation, which allowed him to make throws like the one below.

Miami's ability to attack defenses with in-breakers opened up the rest of the offense, whether that was fades or underneath routes for YAC opportunities. Those intermediate throws aren't available anymore, however. Defenses have focused on bottling up that area of the field, and Tua's limitations have kept him and McDaniel from finding new ways to attack defenses.

That shows when looking at how his passing depth has changed from that 2023 season to now. In 2023, Tua attempted 101 throws from 10-20 yards downfield in between the hashes and completed 72 of them for 1,234 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions. In 2025? 13 attempts, six completions for 69 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. He's on pace for 55 attempts, 25 completions, 8.5 touchdowns and 12.75 interceptions over the full season, a dramatic change has thrown a wrench in the entire offense, and especially their ability to attack the deep portion of the field.

Remember how Tagovailoa ranked eighth and fifth in attempts and completions of throws 20+ yards downfield in 2023? Through four weeks this season, he ranks 24th in attempts and 16th in completions.

Ultimately, the Dolphins' offense has hit a wall with Tua as their quarterback. They need someone who can open up the offense by threatening defenses in new areas of the field, a skillset that Dante Moore fits perfectly.

Why They Should Draft Moore (If He’s Even There)

Dante Moore is making a strong case for why he should be the first quarterback drafted when April rolls around. He’s in a tight race with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, but after his show-stopping performance against Penn State this weekend, it feels as if he’s taken the lead.

Moore has all of the traits that you look for in a top-10 pick at quarterback. He has arm strength in spades, both when driving the ball and floating throws out downfield. He’s also got the arm creativity play callers look for, with a variety of arm slots he can use to fire from. Moore’s mobility is also a plus trait, not to the extent of a Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels, but enough to evade defenders in the backfield and extend plays.

These traits were on full display against Penn State in Week 5, where he threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns against a Nittany Lions defense that has allowed the 17th-least passing yards per game in the country this season.

Moore is a first-year starter, and there’s still the occasional blemish in the mental side of his game, sometimes trying to be overzealous and rip balls into windows that aren’t there. These kinds of blemishes are ones that coaches can work with, however. The chart below shows just how good his play has been this season compared to the rest of the country:

While it’s true that there’s no such thing as a slam dunk pick, players with Moore’s statistical profile and traits have recently proven to be successful draft choices.

Whether Dolphins owner Stephen Ross decides to stick with Mike McDaniel and the current front office is a key factor in whether drafting Moore is the best option, as his lack of experience will likely surface at times during his professional career. With a seasoned play caller like McDaniel guiding him, however, Moore's chances of realizing the potential he has shown in the first five weeks of the season are high.

Is It Time To Turn The Page?

Ultimately, the 2026 NFL Draft is more than six months away. There are still 14 weeks left in the NFL season, and things will undoubtedly change, both in Miami and with Moore.

However, it feels like the Tagovailoa era in Miami has run its course. The Dolphins have won just one game heading into Week 5, and ESPN has their chances of reaching the postseason at 7.5%. Given the Dolphins’ current situation and the fact that they have the fourth-least cap space in the league next season, it doesn’t feel like they’ll be competing for a championship any time soon.

At the end of the day, the team is stuck in a costly commitment to a quarterback who has proven he can’t elevate those around him to become a championship contender. Tagovailoa has provided stability, but stability without upside doesn’t win Super Bowls. Moore, on the other hand, represents a spark for a team that badly needs it at quarterback.

Ross, McDaniel, and Dolphins general manager Chris Grier might not be ready to pull the plug on their quarterback just yet, but if the season keeps going the way it is, it’ll get harder to ignore the writing on the wall. If they get the chance to start fresh with a quarterback like Moore in 2026, the real question won’t be if they should make the move, but whether they can afford not to.