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In nine seasons with Carolina, Cam Newton 60 percent or more of his passes only three times. Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Six reasons Cam Newton may not start for Patriots

By Michael Nania | Last updated 7/3/20

Cam Newton signed with New England earlier this week, giving Patriots fans hope that post-Tom Brady their team will continue to dominate the AFC East. But Newton, a nine-year vet, is far from a lock to start for the Patriots. Here's why:

Low-guarantee deal

Newton received a one-year deal with just $550K in guarantees (tied for 57th among quarterbacks) on a $1.05 million base. That does not read like a contract that would be given to a surefire starter. While it seems likely that Newton will receive every opportunity to beat out Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer for the starting job --- he probably would not have signed there if that were not the case --- the measly terms of his deal clearly mean the Patriots do not view him as a lock to start.

New England's confidence in Stidham

The Patriots have more confidence in the 2019 fourth-rounder than many seem willing to believe. It is telling that the only move New England made at quarterback through the first few months of the offseason was signing veteran backup Brian Hoyer. The Patriots ignored the position in the draft and the trade market. One AFC East head coach supported the claim that Stidham -- who threw for only 48 TDs in college -- is Belichick's man.

And don't underestimate the value of Stidham having spent a year-plus in the Patriots' program. Because of the coronavirus, Newton has not had any time in person with the Patriots. Training camp might start later than we think because of COVID-19, giving Stidham an edge.

Newton's short-but-ineffective start to 2019

Because a foot injury ended his season early, Newton only started two games in 2019 for Carolina. But in those appearances, he looked far removed from how he played in his prime. Over 89 pass attempts, Newton failed to throw a touchdown pass and accumulated just 572 yards passing, a mere 6.4 per attempt. More alarmingly, his rushing impact was non-existent, as he ran for -2 yards on five carries.

This sample size is small to draw definitive conclusions --- especially if Newton was battling injury during his time on the field. But what makes the poor two-game stretch worrisome is that it continued Newton's struggles to close 2018.

Going back to 2018, over his past five games, Newton has thrown for two touchdowns, seven interceptions, 6.3 yards per attempt and posted a 66.7 passer rating -- well below the league average. In that stretch, the Panthers were 0-5 and scored just 16.6 points per game (offensive points only).

Lack of overall effectiveness after his MVP season

Since his fantastic MVP season in 2015 (35 TD passes, 3,837 yards passing), Newton has not come close to reaching those heights. From 2016-19, he posted a passer rating of 82.6, which ranked 27th of 28 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts over that span. Only Blake Bortles (81) was worse among the group.

One recurring problem for Newton over this stretch has been his lack of efficiency on third down. From 2016-19, Newton recorded a 73.3 passer rating on third down, third worst among qualified quarterbacks (better than only Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bortles).

Also, Newton's third-down interception rate of 4.5% (19 picks on 423 passes) was the worst among qualifiers over that span.

One more thing to keep in mind: Newton is not especially accurate. In nine seasons with the Panthers, he completed more than 60 percent of his passes only three times. Aside from his rookie season, when he threw only three passes, Brady never had a season under 60 percent.

Poor production under pressure

Handling pressure has long been a major concern for Newton --- an issue that Belichick and the Patriots never had to worry about with Brady. Newton's passer rating under pressure ranked in the bottom half among qualified quarterbacks in every season from 2014-18, including bottom-five finishes in 2014, 2016 and 2018.

Newton did not qualify in 2019, but his 39.6 passer rating under pressure was a career worst and better than only one qualifier (Pittsburgh's Mason Rudolph).

Declining effectiveness as a runner

Newton's dynamic ability as a runner has been the centerpiece of his game from Day 1. His total of 58 career rushing touchdowns is already 15 more than any other quarterback in league history.

Newton is 31, has taken over a decade's worth of NFL and college hits, and has fought through numerous injuries in recent seasons. One can only wonder how much longer he can thrive as a runner --- and the decline has already been happening for years.

Over his first five seasons (2011-15), Newton averaged 658 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns per 16 games and picked up a first down on 42.9% of his attempts. Since then, Newton has averaged only 544 yards and five touchdowns per 16 games and his first-down rate declined to 32.8%.

Newton has posted a rushing first-down rate below 40% in four consecutive seasons after eclipsing 40% in each of his first five. Newton did not pick up a rushing first down over his two appearances in 2019 and is currently on a career-long streak of nine consecutive games without a rushing touchdown

Will Newton be able to perform at an adequate level as a passer if he can no longer lean on the threat of his legs? That's among the many questions the Patriots seek answers for heading into the 2020 season.

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