Sizing Up the 2025 49ers: How They'll Win, Why They'll Lose

Defense: Getting off the field on 3rd down.

Last year, the Niners ranked 27th in the league on defense in 3rd down conversion percentage against. They couldn’t get the timely sack or stop, remained on the field, and their lack of depth was exposed as the game progressed. The Niners surrendered two double-digit leads in the 4th as a result.

This year, they have what may well be their best 3rd down pass rush since 2019: Nick Bosa, Mykel Williams, C.J. West and Bryce Huff. Every one of them a threat. Williams has impressed with his interior pass rushing at camp. West went five-for-five on his 1-on-1 drills yesterday. Bosa looked good as well.

Having a front four that can generate heat without any help enables Robert Saleh to design coverage schemes behind them to get off the field. In addition, having a front four that occupies the offensive line sets up blitz packages that will overwhelm offenses. Getting stops on 3rd is transformational for this defense and this team. The defense will lead the way.

Offense: Higher efficiency without Deebo Samuel and by adding Luke Farrell.

Kyle Shanahan force-fed Samuel with mediocre results due to Samuel’s inconsistent hands and declining athleticism. Now those touches can be distributed to George Kittle and the receivers, and to Isaac Guerendo on checkdowns and jet sweeps, with a higher success rate.

Luke Farrell’s blocking should lead to more two-tight-end sets and greater left-right balance for the running game. The Niners are a left-handed running team behind Trent Williams. Farrell should enable more success running right to increase the 49ers' unpredictability. His presence should also reduce Kittle’s blocking load and free him for more routes downfield and higher utilization in the red zone.

Special Teams: Improved field position.

The Niners were last in net punt yards last year. Part of that was the offense moving the ball well, leading to shorter punts to pin teams inside the 20, part of it was poor kick coverage and an aging, injured Mitch Wishnowsky.

With a new punter and a well-respected Special Teams Coordinator in Brant Boyer, the Niners should make a substantial improvement in field position due to better coverage and returns on punts and kickoffs. A glaring weakness for years, potentially fixed at last.

WHY THEY LOSE

Defense: One of the worst starting safety duos in the league for the first 6-8 weeks.

With Malik Mustapha likely out for the first half of the season, the starting safeties will be who emerges out of Jason Pinnock, Ji’Ayir Brown, and Richie Grant. I expect Pinnock and Grant to be the starters.

In the opener, they face an accurate deep thrower in Sam Darnold with a talented group of receivers. The 49ers' improved pass rush will need to help, but if Seattle goes deep on 1st or 2nd, that’s a problem.

Four-time 2nd Team All-Pro safety Justin Simmons is still available in free agency, but if the Niners were interested, I would have expected them to act by now.

Safeties tend to be taken for granted. The Niners may change their tune if it costs them the Seattle game, but by then it will be too late to fix.

Offense: If The Sword of Damocles falls.

In the Greek parable, a sword is held above a person’s head by a single horsehair, capable of breaking at any time and killing him. That’s the Niners offense, the aging core of Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and George Kittle are all at risk of significant injury or slowing down to reduced impact. If one of them goes down for weeks at a time, the offense takes a huge hit.

Part of Shanahan’s task for this year is developing young players to form a viable Plan B.

With Christian McCaffrey motivated to generate impressive stats to land a new extension, and Shanahan’s reluctance to rest him within a rotation, the odds of a McCaffrey injury by week 10 are perilously high. Jordan James as the “in case of emergency break glass” back makes him the most important rookie on offense.

Special Teams: If Jake Moody gets the kicking job and starts missing again.

This is the fear, but Boyer removes that from the equation. If Moody gets the job, then starts shanking kicks, Boyer will call Greg Joseph to take over. In this case, there is a viable Plan B.

The situational dynamics are all connected. To me, it begins with the defense getting off the field on 3rd. That fixes the defensive problem of fading in the 4th, which connects to the offense being 28th in 4th quarter scoring. More three-and-outs on defense, combined with solid special teams, set up the offense for greater success. A dangerous pass rush can be the rising tide that lifts all boats.