Source: Packers Re-Sign AJ Dillon

AJ Dillon has decided to return to the Green Bay Packers, a source told Packer Central on Thursday evening.

NFL Network was the first to report the news.

Just like nobody expected a week ago, Aaron Jones was released and is playing with the Minnesota Vikings and Dillon returned to the team that drafted him in the second round in 2020.

With that, the Packers will have their tandem for 2024. Instead of the Lightning and Thunder of Jones and Dillon, it will be the Thunder and Thunder with Josh Jacobs and Dillon.

While Dillon was unable to pick up the slack through Jones’ extended absences last season with a career-worst 3.4-yard average, he’s been a valuable role player the past three seasons.

The best evidence is a Pro Football Reference stat called “Success Rate.” It matches Green Bay’s win/loss grading system. Any run that gains 40 percent of the yards on first down (a 4-yard run on first-and-10, for instance), at least 60 percent of the remaining yards on second down and all the remaining yards on third or fourth down is a “success.”

From 2021 through 2023, 50 running backs had at least 275 carries. Dillon’s success rate of 55.9 percent was No. 1 in the NFL. Even in a disappointing 2023, his 50.0 percent success rate ranked 10th out of 41 running backs with at least 110 carries.

Jones was No. 1.

Dillon has proven to be a do-it-all back. Not only can get the tough yards, he can catch (34-of-37 targets in 2021 and 22-of-28 targets in 2023) and protect the paser. Keeping Dillon to pair with Jacobs will give the Packers a powerful tandem – quite literally – and allow them to use their premium draft picks at other positions.

“AJ’s been a great member of our team,” coach Matt LaFleur said at the end of the season. “You’ve got to have multiple backs in this league. You have to. It’s just the pounding these guys take. I think you could really see his value every year towards the end of the season. Shoot, I’d love to have him back here.”

Following a bout with COVID as a rookie in 2020, Dillon played in 51 consecutive games until he missed a late-season game with a broken thumb. Later, he missed Week 18 and the two playoff games following a stinger.

On the other hand, Dillon has fallen flat of expectations. The Packers drafted him in hopes that he’d perhaps become the equivalent of Derrick Henry. He showed one flash as a rookie – against Henry and the Titans, no less, when he carried 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns.

That wound up being the only 100-yard game of his career.

After averaging 5.3 yards per carry in minimal action in 2020 behind Jones and Jamaal Williams, Dillon replaced Williams as the No. 2 back in 2021. He rushed for 803 yards, averaged 4.3 yards per carry, was No. 1 with a 61.0 percent success rate and had 1,116 yards from scrimmage.

In 2022, he rushed for 770 yards with a 4.1 average, his success rate was a fifth-ranked 56.5 percent, and he had 976 total yards.

In 2023, he rushed for 613 yards with a woeful 3.4 average, his success rate fell further to 50.0 percent, and he tallied 836 total yards.

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