Sports Illustrated Projects the 49ers to Win Under 10.5 Games

The 49ers are feeling pretty good about themselves right now.

They just extended Fred Warner, George Kittle and Brock Purdy, they got all their business done before OTAs because they want a "drama-free" offseason, and they have the easiest schedule in the NFL on paper.

And yet, Sports Illustrated projects them to win just 8 games next season -- below their over/under of 10.5.

"This total is surprisingly high for a team that had a player exodus this offseason," writes Sports Illustrated's Gilberto Manzano. "Yes, the 49ers still have plenty of talent, but it’s not a given that Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey will stay healthy or that wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk will quickly regain his top form after a significant knee injury. There will be many inexperienced players starting on the defensive side."

Manzano's analysis is correct.

When people make excuses for the 49ers' 6-11 season last year, they generally point to injuries. But the biggest injuries occurred to Williams, McCaffrey and Aiyuk, and they're still giant question marks this season.

In addition, Brock Purdy missed two games last season with injuries to his throwing arm, and the 49ers' offensive line got weaker this offseason with the losses of Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore. For some odd reason, the 49ers decided to get cheaper on their offensive line while they made the biggest investment into a quarterback in franchise history. Those moves don't go together.

Finally, the defense could start up to 6 rookies in Week 1.

So even though the 49ers have an easy schedule, 2025 is a transition year for them and they know it. If they play their cards correctly, tney just might be Super Bowl contenders in 2026.