Success vs. Third-Place Opponents Is Essential for Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars have an extensive 2025 offseason plan, complete with phases, as the franchise strives to make strides in the first season of the Liam Coen and James Gladstone era.

It's important for the GM and Head Coach to make sure that their charges grow in the new system and are equipped to move on through each and every phase. Those phases extend to the regular season.

A lot of organizations measure success through each quarter of the season, although with campaigns of 17 games now, it's not clear just which quarter has the extra game. Another way to look at it, is breaking up the schedule by divisions. Since the 2002 realignment, the NFL schedule is mostly rotational. With eight divisions featuring four teams each, it's actually possible to project 82% of every single franchise's slate of games.

Every team can count on playing games, home and away, every single season against their division mates. '

After those six contests, the Jaguars know that barring expansion or another restructuring, they will play the NFC West in 2025, 2029 and every four years after. In the same manner, any AFC South squad can equate every U.S. Presidential Election with the playing of the NFC North. In the same manner, each franchise plays the same teams in a certain division every three years. For 2025, it's the AFC West.

Then there's the three undecided opponents that won't be known until the standings are in cement at the end of each league season. Until 2021, the two teams that end in the exact spot in the other divisions not in the rotation, completed the schedule. Going into the fifth year of a 17-game season now, there's an added rotation of another third-place team, but it's in the other conference. This year it's the NFC South.

With that formula, the three "to be determined" teams for the Jaguars this year are Carolina in Week 1 at home, on the road in Cincinnati in Week 2, and Week 15 vs. the New York Jets. What does history tell us about past success or failure for the "big cats" against the trio of third-place teams?

The Bengals surged in the remaining weeks of 2025 to finish with five-consecutive wins and a 9-8 record. The defense will need to be on alert against the high-powered Cincy offense. However, the Jaguars have played many games against their former division mates in the AFC Central, and possess a winning record at 13-12.

Versus the 5-12 New York Jets, a team that they've seen on seven occasions in the past 10 years, the Jags are 9-9. Just the same, going head-to head with 5-12 Carolina, their 1995 expansion brothers, the Jaguars are even at 4-4.

Combined at 26-25 and facing two of the three in Weeks 1 and 2, the Jacksonville Jaguars have their best possibility of starting out strong against their fellow next-to-lasters. Then, on to the next phase.

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