Super Bowl LVI: Preview and pick

LOS ANGELES (15-5) VS CINCINNATI (13-7), Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

TV: NBC        Line: Los Angeles -3.5

There are any number of ways this matchup can be analyzed, but the most straightforward path to victory for the Rams involves their defensive front, specifically Aaron Donald, overwhelming Cincinnati’s mediocre offensive line and collapsing the pocket from the interior. Doing so would neutralize Joe Burrow’s ability to make plays on the run, something he has been adept at all year. If the Rams blitz, they had better get home quickly, because Burrow will carve them up if he has enough time to scan the field and step into his throws. He’s also got excellent pocket awareness and has proven he can step away from the rush and make plays with his legs. Jalen Ramsey figures to draw Chase for the majority of the game, if not all of it. If he is able to win that matchup, it will give Los Angeles a big boost; if Chase gets the better of him, it will be a long afternoon for the Rams. Ramsey and Chase are both fast, tough, and physical, so their battle might come down to the nuances. Offensively, Stafford and Kupp will try to work on Mike Hilton, a gifted blitzer but a far less effective player in coverage.

Stafford got lucky in the NFC Championship Game; had Jaquiski Tartt not dropped what should have been an easy interception, the Rams would be sitting at home watching this game. Stafford is capable of exceptional brilliance – see his two throws to Kupp to beat Tampa Bay – but has also been prone to inexplicably bad turnovers at inopportune times. Los Angeles’ best is almost impossible to beat, but they’ve not flashed it often this year. Sean McVay can add a crowning jewel to a career that’s just getting started, and unseat Mike Tomlin as the youngest coach ever to win a Super Bowl. He’ll help his cause by not making the same in-game errors that he did against San Francisco.

In some ways, the Bengals really are playing with house money. No one expected them to be here; not even after their fast start, not after they sputtered mid-season, and certainly not after they fell behind by double-digits at Arrowhead Stadium and looked completely outclassed by the Chiefs. They’ve got an obvious fatal flaw – their offensive line isn’t good – but it hasn’t yet stopped them, not even when the Tennessee Titans sacked Burrow nine times. Every time Cincinnati has taken a punch, they’ve delivered several in return. Lou Anarumo’s defense was a middle-of-the-pack group this year, but they’ve risen up in these playoffs, holding the Raiders and Titans under 20 points, and holding the Chiefs to three points after halftime for the second time this season. Hendrickson has been a force coming off the edge, Logan Wilson is quickly turning into a big difference-maker at linebacker, Hilton is a wild card in the slot, and Jessie Bates is still one of the league’s most underrated safeties. If Hendrickson can force Stafford to hurry his throws, Cincinnati can absolutely force turnovers and throw off Los Angeles’ timing.

Of course, the real story with Cincinnati begins and ends with Burrow. He has completely transformed the franchise; when he’s on the field, the expectation is that good things are going to happen for the orange and black. He made every play down the stretch to beat the Chiefs, and when Patrick Mahomes threw an interception in overtime, Burrow displayed a true killer instinct, taking apart the Chiefs with surgical precision to position the Bengals for a chip-shot game-winning field goal. Before Burrow, the Bengals were a dysfunctional-if-talented team that couldn’t handle success and wilted at the first sign of adversity. Now they have the look of one of the league’s most resilient teams and can complete an astonishing run to glory with one more win. Burrow has a backfield hammer in Mixon, and in Boyd and Higgins, two receivers plenty capable of destroying an opposing defense that pays too much attention to Chase. The Bengals are underdogs for the third-straight game, but at this point, you should doubt them at your own risk.

Look smart to your friends:

-Kupp led the league in all three receiving categories – 145 catches, 1,947 receiving yards, and 16 receiving touchdowns – and is the first player to accomplish that feat for a team that also advanced to the Super Bowl.

-Burrow will become the first-ever top overall pick to start in the Super Bowl in just his second season, and just the seventh second-year quarterback overall to accomplish the feat. With a win, he'll also be the first quarterback in history to win a Heisman Trophy, National Championship, and Super Bowl. 

The pick: Bengals 30 Rams 24