Super Bowl LVIII: Betting trends for Niners and Chiefs

We continue on with our Super Bowl LVIII prep by quickly taking stock of how both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have fared in the betting markets this season.
 
As it stands, San Francisco is sitting as two-point favorites, with the over/under at 47, down from 47.5 yesterday.

Current odds: San Francisco -2, Kansas City +2 | Over/under: 47 points

ATS betting trends

Chiefs ATS record: 12-7-1 (63.2%)

49ers ATS record: 9-10 (47.4%)

Kansas City heads into this one tied for the third-best ATS record in the NFL this season, and they are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this postseason. The Chiefs beat Miami handedly in the wild-card round to cover as favorites and then won outright as underdogs in the subsequent two weeks.

San Francisco's 9-10 ATS record is 13th-worst in the NFL this season. They are one of only two teams that made the playoffs this season that has covered less than 50% of their games this season, thanks in no small part to the fact they have failed to cover in either game this postseason.

Does that perhaps suggest that the Super Bowl opening odds are the sportsbooks just making the same mistakes? The betting markets might be overvaluing San Francisco and undervaluing Kansas City once again, which would suggest the bet to make might be Chiefs +2 at this juncture.

Over/under betting trends

Chiefs O/U record: 6-14 (70% to the under)

49ers O/U record: 11-8 (57.9% to the over)

Kansas City is the third-best team this year at going under its total. That likely is a combination of oddsmakers forced to respect a Patrick Mahomes-led offense while simultaneously having an elite Chiefs defense. Two of the three postseason games for Kansas City have gone under, with their games against Miami (33) and Baltimore (27) not even coming close to the total.

On the flip side, San Francisco's 58% over rate is the seventh-best mark in the NFL this season. The Niners' divisional round matchup with Green Bay stayed under by just a hair while their game last week against Detroit flew over with a final tally of 65 points.

For what it's worth, three straight meetings between these teams have shot past the set total for next weekend, with an average total of 61 points. That includes a 51-point outing in Super Bowl LIV.

As viewers and bettors who are sure to be loading up our fair share of of touchdown props, here's hoping to over 47, but the dominance Kansas City has had toward the under has us leaning in that direction.