Super Bowl LVIII: Enjoy Action Network's Super Bowl Betting Primer

Defending History

Market Doubt

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year as underdogs after opening up as the favorites against the Eagles. This year, Kansas City is back and the underdogs again. This is just the third time in Super Bowl history that the defending Super Bowl champ was listed as the underdogs in the Super Bowl the next season. The previous two teams lost.

1978-79 Cowboys
1978: Beat Broncos as favorites
1979: Lost to Steelers as underdogs

2014-15 Seahawks
2014: Beat Broncos as underdogs
2015: Lost to Patriots as underdogs

2023-24 Chiefs
2023: Beat Eagles as underdogs
2024: TBD vs. 49ers as underdogs

The Chiefs would be the 4th team to close as underdogs in consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City could be the first to win both games.

• 1974-75 Vikings (Lost-Lost)
• 1992-94 Bills (Lost-Lost-Lost)
• 2014-15 Seahawks (Won-Lost)
• 2023-24 Chiefs (Won-???)

Top Billing

Team To Beat

The San Francisco 49ers were favored in all 17 regular-season games (the only team in the NFL to do that this season) and were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs. They're the 10th team (and the fifth 49ers team) to accomplish both in the same season since 1980. Seven of the previous nine teams made the Super Bowl — including five straight teams in the last 30 years — and four hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

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All K.C. Love

Record High

As of Friday afternoon, the Chiefs are getting 71% of the betting tickets on the spread via Action Network. Over the last 20 years of Super Bowls, the record for percent of betting tickets for a team is 68% by the 2018-19 Patriots (beat Rams 13-3) and 2013-14 Broncos (lost to Seahawks 43-8).

Power of Momentum

Coming In Hot

• The Chiefs have now covered five straight games entering the Super Bowl. Kansas City is the 17th team to cover at least five straight games entering a Super Bowl. When their opponent is not on an ATS win streak of two or more games, the streaking team is 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS.

• The 49ers are just the second team in the Super Bowl era to make the game losing at least three in a row against the spread. In the Super Bowl era, only one other team has entered the Super Bowl on an ATS losing streak of three or more games: the 2007-08 Patriots, who had lost five straight ATS.

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Quite The Turn

Chalk To Dog

A tale of two legacies (so far). Mahomes was listed as the favorite in his first 13 playoff games prior to Super Bowl 57. Closing as an underdog against Eagles prevented him from tying Peyton Manning for the longest streak (14) as a betting favorite in the playoffs in Super Bowl history. If Mahomes closes as an underdog vs. 49ers, he will have been a 'dog in four of his last five playoff games after that 13-game favorite streak and three straight games.

In the last 20 years, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 60-24-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring and 35-16-2 ATS (69%) after the ring — including, 13-4 ATS since 2018 playoffs.

San Francisco's Dilemma

Chalky Road

Entering the playoffs, the 49ers had a bye and were the betting favorite in the future odds market. Historically, pedigree hasn't led to titles.

• The 49ers were favored by an average of 8.3 points per game this season, which was highest mark in the NFL. Chiefs were just at the 4.8 mark, fourth highest. Over the last 20 years, the team that was the bigger favorite on average over the course of the season is 7-13 SU and 3-17 ATS in the Super Bowl (7-15 SU and 3-19 ATS over the last 22 years — since 2001). Prior to that stretch, these teams went 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS dating back to 1990.

• San Francisco enters the Super Bowl with a slightly better SU win percentage (74%) than the Chiefs (70%) this season. In recent history, that hasn't boded well for San Francisco's side since the team with the better win percentage is 1-15 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2003.

• The 49ers had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Chiefs didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t entering the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 5-10 SU and 2-12-1 ATS.

Big Red

Power Of Rest

The Super Bowl historically has a two-week gap between the Conference Championship and the big game. For Andy Reid, that has always been an advantage across his career.

In just Week 1, Reid is 16-9 SU as a head coach. When looking at his teams when playing on 13+ days rest outside of Week 1, which is typically the normal bye week, his teams are 31-7 SU, including 26-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks. His losses were against the Eagles this season and his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots.

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Positive Kyle

Familiar Places

Let's start with the good when it comes to Kyle Shanahan.

The 49ers head coach is 6-0 SU as a favorite in the playoffs. He is the only coach who's 5-0 SU or better as a favorite in the playoffs since 2000.

The 49ers will also be staying on the West Coast for this game, which will be in Las Vegas. With the 49ers, Shanahan is 32-11 SU, 28-14-1 ATS when San Francisco plays on the Pacific Time after playing in the PST in their previous game, as well.

After playing in PST in his previous game, Shanahan has won 17 consecutive games SU playing in PST again, with his last loss came back in December of 2021. When Shanahan’s opponents’ previous time zone is Eastern Time, he is 15-3 SU.

Negative Kyle

Blip or Trend?

This postseason, the 49ers are 2-0 when trailing by seven or more points in the second half. San Francisco entered the playoffs this year 4-42 SU under Kyle Shanahan when trailing by seven points or more in the second half.

When Shanahan's 49ers teams are trailing entering the fourth quarter, they're 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.

How do Shanahan teams perform by opponent biggest lead?

• 7 or more points: 22-45 SU (33%) and 21-46 ATS (31%)
• 9 or more points: 7-40 SU/ATS (15%)
• 14 or more points: 3-29 SU/ATS (9%)

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Just Cover

On The Line

This will likely be the 31st Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 29 of 30 games. Fifteen 'dogs have won outright and 15 favorites have won outright. The Rams (-4.5) beating the Bengals by three in February 2022 broke the streak.

Drilling down further: 22 Super Bowl’s have had a spread of four or fewer points. The SU winner has covered in all 22 (11 favorites, 11 underdogs).

Beat 'Em Up

Chiefs Second Halves

When the game hits the second half, the Chiefs have virtually run out the clock all season. Chiefs wins are 18-2 to the second-half under in their last 20 games and 19-1 to the fourth-quarter under.

Since 2005, the Chiefs are the most profitable team to the second-half over or under, according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would be up $1,474 taking second-half unders in Chiefs games this season. The next-best were the 2017 Falcons — whose offensive coordinator was Shanahan — who were 15-1-2 to the under at +$1,348.

• 2023 Chiefs: 18-2, $1,474 (unders)
• 2017 Falcons: 15-1-2, $1.348 (unders)
• 2011 Browns: 13-2-1, +$948 (unders)
• 2010 Broncos: 14-2, +$1,088 (overs)

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