Super Bowl LVIII: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs betting picks, preview

The San Francisco defense is packed with talent as well, headlined by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, which should make life difficult for the Chiefs offense.

Kansas City is certainly no stranger to the Big Game, vying for its third title since 2020 and the right to be dubbed the NFL's next dynasty. Mahomes is in a class of his own, and his offense has quality pieces throughout led by star tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce should find room to operate as he so often does, and a balanced WR room and a strong RB in Isiah Pacheco makes this Kansas City team a headache to gameplan against.

The Chiefs sport one of the NFL's best secondaries, ranking among the stingiest against the pass this season thanks to the CB combo of L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie. Chris Jones in the interior D-line should be in the backfield early and often as one of the NFL's best.

Kansas City is 12-7-1 this year ATS, while San Francisco is jut 9-10. The 49ers are 11-8 to the over this season and the Chiefs are 14-6 to the under, one of the best marks in the league at going under the total.

Betting Picks for San Francisco vs. Kansas City

Chiefs +2

At the end of the day, this is Patrick Mahomes against Brock Purdy. Mahomes has proven time and time again that he should not be doubted, and he's responded nearly every time he and Kansas City have been set as the underdogs.

Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, and has covered all three games this postseason, twice being the 'dogs. Mahomes and Andy Reid know what it takes to win a Super Bowl, and that advantage is not to be doubted.

Kansas City's defense is a massive reason why they're here, and they should be able to do enough to limit Purdy in the passing game. We're backing the better QB and experienced team.

Truly the only fishy thing to us and this line is that it hasn't moved at all in over a week despite seemingly most of the money and action coming in on Kansas City. We're not overthinking it: back the Chiefs.

Under 47.5 points

As we've looked to the player prop market, we're struck with a takeaway that feels worth mentioning: we don't love a lot of player production in this one.

That isn't to say there aren't angles, there are. Christian McCaffrey should see plenty of work. Travis Kelce seems likely to get his catches. Still, both defenses are incredibly strong, and it's a big reason these teams are still playing. 

As such, we'll fade the public's rooting interest and grab the under, it just seems to be the right play based on the numbers we tend to care about. Two of Kansas City's three games have gone under this postseason while San Fran is 1-1 to the total.