Super Bowl MVP: Non-QBs looking great

The modern NFL game is designed for the quarterback to succeed. That is why they get the big bucks and all the pub!

The Super Bowl has been a microcosm of that with the MVP being a quarterback in four of the last five seasons. The lone exception was Patriots receiver Julian Edelman, who won the award in Super Bowl LIII with 10 catches for 141 yards.

This season, with all due respect to Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford, it feels like the chances for a non QB winner of the MVP are better than ever. 

Here are the odds for the top-eight players, followed by some thoughts on probabilities and where the value may lie. 

Matthew Stafford +135

Joe Burrow +225

Cooper Kupp +600

Aaron Donald +1200

Ja'Marr Chase +1600

Odell Beckham Jr +2500

Cam Akers +3000

Joe Mixon +3500

The first thing you notice with these odds is that they are aligned with the odds for the game. The Rams are favored, and their players are lined lower than those of the Bengals. That makes sense. The MVP is most likely to come from the winning team, so if you are on the Rams to win, picking Joe Mixon to win MVP would not make much sense. Even as a hedging strategy. (please don't do that)

Another thing that jumps out is Rams DT Aaron Donald's place ahead of any Cincinnati skill-position players. Donald is one of the most disruptive defensive players in the league, and the Bengals have problems blocking for Burrow. It is very possible he posts a day similar to current teammate Von Miller, who won the MVP of Super Bowl 50 thanks to 2.5 sacks for Denver. With the way the Bengals throw the ball, the L.A. defensive line is definitely going to get its chances to put up some numbers. At that price, there is a lot to like. 

Finally, a Super Bowl has not always had this class of elite receivers. Cooper Kupp is lauded for his all-around game to the point you might think he is a better blocker than a receiver, and rookie Ja'Marr Chase has made some of the most exciting plays of the season. His 266 yards against Kansas City during the regular season were the most any player had in a season, one of two 200+ yard games he had this year. For both of these guys, they are excellent playmakers and good bets. 

This year more than recent seasons, it feels like a non-quarterback is a great bet to win it. I like the Bengals to cover the number but I am not quite there on them winning it outright. (I can get there though). If they do, Burrow is a good value, but I also love Chase. Not only has he had some monster games, but they often give him a few carries and maybe they have a wrinkle or two that creates a big play or two. 

If you are on the Rams I would bypass Stafford, the payoff just isn't that great. Kupp and Donald are two really good options and OBJ can always dazzle in a one-game sample.

The last running back to win the Super Bowl MVP was the Broncos' Terrell Davis. That was in the last century, and I think that streak continues so I would not mess around with Mixon or Akers. 

This is a great market to dabble in and enjoy while watching the game.