Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons predictions, odds, preview: NFL picks for  'Thursday Night Football'

After being upset by the Broncos, the Buccaneers bounced back with a 33-16 win over the Eagles. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 984 yards and 8 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions so far this season, while Bucky Irving has taken control of the backfield with a team-high 5.8 yards per carry and 203 rushing yards. The Falcons won 26-24 over the Saints last week. The Atlanta offense has yet to get going this season, as Kirk Cousins only has 4 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, while Bijan Robinson is averaging 56 rushing yards per game.

Let's get into my Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction and my NFL picks and predictions for "Thursday Night Football."

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Picks, Prediction

Thursday, Oct. 3

8:15 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Falcons -1.5
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons over/under: 44 points
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons moneyline: Falcons -125, Buccaneers +105
• Buccaneers vs. Falcons pick: Under 44

My Falcons vs. Buccaneers best bet is on the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

I project the spread as Falcons -2, so I don't see a big enough edge to bet.

Moneyline

I'm not betting either moneyline tonight.

Over/Under

The Buccaneers are running an ultra-conservative passing attack this season, and the Falcons defense prevents yards after the catch at a high level. Also, Cousins has struggled against the blitz this season. With all of that, I'm betting the under.

Also, referee Ron Tolbert is officiating this game. He has been the most-profitable referee for the under since 2020 with a 43-26 record in that span.

Player Prop

My lean here is YaYa Diaby Over 0.25 sacks (+200). Diaby has been unlucky to only have one sack this season as he’s generated 16 pressures (ranks 13th). He’s also getting to the quarterback fast, with eight pressures occurring in less than three seconds. Despite being immobile, Cousins has been great at avoiding sacks this season and throughout his career, but it’s quick pressures that tend to take him down. I think Diaby is offering sneaky value to get a sack tonight and have the fair price for this closer to +165.

My Pick: Under 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Thursday Night Football Preview

When the Bucs Have the Ball

Baker Mayfield is having an impressive encore season with the Buccaneers, putting to rest concerns that offensive coordinator Dave Canales’ departure would hurt his efficiency. New coordinator Liam Coen has implemented a conservative scheme that has Mayfield getting rid of the ball at the quickest rate of his career (2.44 seconds to throw) and keeping things short (5.6 air yards per attempt, second lowest among 33 qualified QBs).

Last season, Mayfield was airing it out at the sixth-highest deep-ball rate (12%). This year, he’s only throwing deep on 4.7% of his passes (second lowest). He’s leaning on his pass catchers to create yards after the catch, and they’ve been delivering. However, the Falcons defense is built to stifle this style of play, having allowed the second-lowest YACOE (YAC over expected) on the season, per NextGenStats.

Tampa Bay’s run game continues to be a liability, ranking 24th in DVOA. Despite this, the Bucs are still stubbornly splitting carries between Rachaad White, who’s struggled with rushing efficiency his entire career, and explosive rookie Bucky Irving. Tampa Bay's offensive line hasn’t done them any favors, allowing ball carriers to get hit behind the line at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL, which has led to the second-highest run stuff rate in the league.

When the Falcons Have the Ball

Kirk Cousins was already a statuesque quarterback, but following his 2023 Achilles tear, he’s been as mobile as a mall Santa in the pocket. According to NextGenStats, 94% of his pass attempts have come from inside the tackle box, which is by far the highest rate in the league.

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles loves to blitz, and I expect him to dial it up often against Cousins, who ranks 12th (out of 33 qualified QBs) in EPA/dropback when facing four or fewer rushers, but plummets to 24th when teams bring extra pressure. He’s completing just 48.5% of his passes against the blitz (third lowest in the league) compared to 70.9% when teams don’t blitz. His lack of mobility is a big reason why he’s struggled so much against extra pressure this season.

To make matters worse, the Falcons will be without starting center Drew Dalman, who landed on Injured Reserve last week. Dalman ranks fifth among 37 qualified centers in Pro Football Focus grade, while replacement Ryan Neuzil sits last.

The Falcons have been a run-heavy team this season with a pass rate over expected of -6%, and that will likely be the best way to attack a Bucs defense that has allowed the highest EPA/rush on the season and will be without safety Antoine Winfield again this week. It’s worth noting, though, that a big part of Tampa Bay’s run defense struggles have come against mobile quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Jalen Hurts. They obviously won’t have to worry about Cousins taking off, which could help tighten up their run defense.

The Falcons put up 26 points against a Saints team that ranks second in defensive DVOA, but our expected score model (which fuels the Luck Rankings) estimated they should have scored just 14 points. Their scoring outburst was boosted by some fluky plays, including a muffed punt returned for a touchdown, a pick-six and four field goals of 40+ yards. The market may be overreacting to that 26-point outlier.

Pick: Under 44

Betting Trends

• 73% of bets and 87% of the money are on the Buccaneers to cover the spread.
• 83% of bets and 76% of the money are on the over.
• 70% of bets and 42% of the money on the moneyline are on the Falcons.

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Buccaneers vs. Falcons is scheduled for a 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA, on Thursday night. The game is broadcasted live by Prime Video.

About the Author

Sean Koerner leads predictive analytics at Action Network, specializing in sports projections and fantasy rankings. With over 20 years of experience, he's a top expert in the field, consistently ranking first in the FantasyPros Accuracy standings multiple times. Known for his in-depth content on NFL betting and fantasy football, Sean also co-hosts popular podcasts and can do projections for all sports, making him a go-to source for accurate sports predictions.

Follow Sean Koerner @The_Oddsmaker on Twitter/X.