Tampa Bay Buccaneers ceiling and floor for 2023

With the regular season kicking off Thursday, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about Tampa Bay back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 6-11 (originally: 7-10)

Baker Mayfield won the starting role, likely entering his last stand as an NFL starting quarterback. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league last season and if he gets off to a slow start, could be without Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Evans, who's seeking a contract extension and is a 2024 free agent. 

The Bucs have too many holes to be taken seriously in the NFC South. Center Ryan Jensen was expected to return after missing the 2022 regular season due to a torn ACL, MCL, PCL and meniscus, but complications from his major knee injury forced him on the season-ending injured reserve list on Aug. 26. 

Tackle Tristan Wirfs is on the record stating his transition to left tackle from the right side hasn't been easy and the team is also relying heavily on rookie second-round pick Cody Mauch, who's slotted in as first-team right guard after primarily playing left tackle at North Dakota State.

Tampa Bay was punished by winning the division in 2022, its common opponents being other 2022 division winners including the Eagles, Bills and 49ers. The Bucs also play a (likely) cold-weather game in Green Bay on Dec. 17 after historically struggling in freezing conditions.

Floor: 4-13 (originally: 4-13)

The Bucs can't be any worse than 4-13, right? The defense, led by linebacker Lavonte David and defensive tackle Vita Vea, has enough pride to keep Tampa from sinking any further than four wins. As noted in our initial preview, the pathway to a four-win 2023 is fairly clear. 

"Philadelphia, Buffalo and San Francisco are likely losses," we wrote, while also pointing to games against Minnesota, Detroit and Jacksonville as other potential defeats. A 2-4 division record still seems realistic, as does a 2-3 record in games against Chicago, Green Bay, Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. 

With some elite quarterback prospects in the 2024 class, Tampa might be content to nosedive in 2023.