Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction, Picks, Odds for NFL Week 16

• Titans vs. Colts spread: Colts -3.5
• Titans vs. Colts over/under: 42.5 points scored
• Titans vs. Colts moneyline: Colts -200, Titans +165
• Titans vs. Colts best bet: Titans +3.5

My Titans vs. Colts best bet is on Tennessee to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

The Titans starting Mason Rudolph over Will Levis is huge in this spot and makes all the difference for me.

I’m taking the Titans +3.5, which I’ll explain further below.

Moneyline

While I like the Titans to cover, I’m not betting their moneyline.

Over/Under

I have no player on the game total.

My Pick: Titans +3.5

Titans vs. Colts NFL Week 16 Preview

The big thing for me with this game is the Titans benching Will Levis for Mason Rudolph.

Levis actually had a somewhat decent stretch this season — he was taking more sacks, but he wasn’t turning the ball over as much. But if you look at the overall numbers this year by DVOA — Rudolph -8.2%; Levis -37.4% — Rudolph is the superior option.

Rudolph is 26th out of 40 QBs while Levis is 39th and Anthony Richardson 36th. DVOA is adjusted for schedule — notable, considering Rudolph played against the Lions and Bills.

Looking at success rate, Rudolph is at 48% (19th), Levis 40% (39th) and Richardson 35.6% (40th), so not only is Rudolph better than Levis significantly, but he’s again better than Richardson, who is now trending down to where his numbers have become worse than Joe Flacco‘s.

As for interception rate, Levis is at 4.2% and Rudolph at 3.2% — both poor marks, but again, better than Richardson, who is dead last. Richardson has a worse interception percentage than even Levis this year.

The thing about the Titans is that their defense is solid, but they don’t generate much pressure. That doesn’t really help Richardson considering he has a 68.3 rating from a clean pocket (43rd out of 44 qualified QBs, per PFF).

The Colts are liable to lose any game. Last week, they probably should have won, so I get that people are a little wary about fading them — but the fact remains that Indianapolis isn’t good.

Richardson is one of the worst QBs in the league and now the Titans are rolling out a competent quarterback.

The Titans have a solid defense that is above average in terms of DVOA and superior to the Colts’. I’ll take over a field goal with the Titans in a spoiler spot.

My Pick: Titans +3.5

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