Texans vs Chiefs: Writer's predictions as Kansas City chases AFC's top seed

It’s a rare sight in 2024: the Kansas City Chiefs entering a game as the betting underdog. It’s even rarer for that to happen within the intimidating confines of Arrowhead Stadium. But such is the ripple effect of uncertainty surrounding quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ availability.

The Chiefs are hosting AFC South stalwart Houston Texans in a rare Saturday showdown. Mahomes’ status remains in question after suffering an ankle sprain during last week’s victory over the Cleveland Browns. While the AFC West champions have veteran quarterback Carson Wentz ready to step in, this matchup will test not only Wentz’s skills but also his ability to lead the Chiefs against a formidable opponent.

Our writers weigh in on Saturday's Kansas City Chiefs - Houston Texans matchup.

The Texans, living up to their preseason hype, have been one of the AFC’s better teams in 2024. With a division title in hand, they pose a significant challenge for Kansas City’s hopes of securing the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Will the Chiefs overcome Mahomes’ injury uncertainty to keep their postseason momentum alive? Or will the Texans make a statement on the road and knock off Kansas City in one of the season’s most intriguing matchups? Our writers weigh in with predictions and what to watch for in this Week 16 clash.

Christian Ainsworth
The Chiefs continue to assert their will with only one loss on their record going into week 16. Houston's underwhelming performance this year has all but ensured a victory for K.C. C.J. Stroud has struggled to maintain the dominance he showed last year, and the Texans' interior offensive line ranks among the bottom five in the league for pressures allowed—2 glaring vulnerabilities. This sets the stage for a potential breakout performance by Chris Jones. Meanwhile, Kelce and Hopkins are emerging as a nearly unstoppable duo, and Worthy seems to be hitting his stride at just the right time.
Chiefs 27, Texans 20

Patrick Allen
Houston has been inconsistent this year and recently lost to Will Levis and the Titans. If Mahomes starts, I think the Chiefs win and as of this writing, it is looking like the Chiefs could have Mahomes AND Hollywood Brown available. If Wentz starts, I think the Chiefs win.
Chiefs 21, Texans 17

Maxwell Cashio
Here we go again. Another week, another reason to be concerned about these Chiefs. Even with 13 wins, none have come easy. I'll be keeping my eyes peeled for a Wentz-led offense (if Mahomes can't go) that will likely become more run-centric around the 6' 5", 237 lb QB. No matter who is taking snaps for KC, it'll be a close one in Arrowhead.
Chiefs 21, Texans 20

Matt Conner
I think Mahomes keeps his streak of appearances alive and is especially sharp because of the physical limitations. His mental toughness will be enough to get it done just enough on offense to edge a tough Texans defensive unit. Meanwhile the Chiefs defense won’t have much of an issue with a problematic Texans’ offense that’s suffered this season.
Chiefs 25, Texans 21

Bransen Gibson
The big question ahead of Saturday's game is who will be at quarterback for the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, or Caron Wentz? To be frank, when it comes to the result, I don't think it matters. The Chiefs should win regardless. KC's D has returned to form recently, and with the weapons available on offense outside of QB - including potentially Hollywood Brown - the Chiefs have what they need to win. I think it will be another close one, but I'm tipping the Chiefs to win.
Chiefs 24, Texans 21

Felix Johnson
I bet the house on Kansas City this week. Even if Carson plays, the defense got a little bit of their swagger back with Jameis and Andy Reid is still that guy. As home dogs, the Chiefs ought to be just fine.
Chiefs 24, Texans 20

Jacob Milham
How many times have Chiefs fans watched Patrick Mahomes tough it out after a notable injury? Even when keeping him on the sideline might seem like the smarter option, the MVP often finds a way to take the field. And let’s be honest—he’ll likely suit up and start again. The Chiefs are playing their third game in 10 days, a grueling stretch that takes a toll on even the toughest rosters. Last week’s win over the Browns was a physical battle, but it should serve as a mental boost for Kansas City’s defense heading into this matchup. Expect the Chiefs to lean heavily on their running game early, setting the tone in the first half and controlling the clock. If the defense rises to the occasion again, Kansas City could grind out another hard-fought victory at Arrowhead.
Chiefs 20, Texans 13

Shawn O'Brate
Mahomes or no Mahomes it’s going to be a tough day against Houston. They are better than their record and have 2-3 top-tier pass catchers that are going to try and capitalize over the likes of KC’s young secondary. That said, the defense has done better the last few weeks and if they can get pressure on Stroud (which has been done all year) then KC can make lemonade out of lemons with Wentz or a hobbled Mahomes.
Chiefs 24, Texans 19

Charles Robinson
A lot of people would say the greatest con artists in the NFLthis season - as far as convincing the rest of the league that they are for real - has been the Chiefs. Many in Houston could fear the same for their squad, though. The Texans enter Saturday's pivotal late season matchup with 1 (one) win over a team with a winning record in 2024. There is far too much at stake for Kansas City with a loss than there is for Houston here. Mahomes ankle will look just fine in a Chiefs win.
Chiefs 29, Texans 23

Stacy D. Smith
With the No. 1 seed still hanging in the balance, an injured Patrick Mahomes will play against the visiting Texans. A gimpy ankle will force Reid and company to be more balanced in the offensive gameplan. Defensively, the Chiefs will again have success with pressuring CJ Stroud and force another pair of turnovers. Kansas City has success making use of their 1-2 punch in the ground game, Patrick Mahomes has an efficient day, and the Chiefs snare their 14th win of the season.
Chiefs 24, Texans 20

Lucas Strozinsky
At the time of writing, Patrick Mahomes' status for this game is unknown. Normally, I would like Houston due to the bad vibes from the Chiefs. But I'm not going to do that. I'm going against my instincts and will pick the Chiefs to inch closer to the #1 seed.
Chiefs 17, Texans 14