The 49ers Lose Fred Warner and Fall to the Buccaneers, Now What?

In my opinion, yes, but it’s a younger player, a rental, or an inexpensive contract. Not that they were going to land Trey Hendrickson or Maxx Crosby, anyway. A rumored deal for Kingsley Enagbare at Green Bay or bringing back Arden Key is more likely.

A deal can help them stay in the mix for a wild card, so I think they still make an attempt to compete, albeit on a much smaller scale than what fans had hoped. As of the November 4th deadline, the Niners should be 6-3. They’ll still be buyers but shopping with a 4th or 5th round comp pick

Could they make other trades to fill holes?

That seems unlikely. The potential DB trade for Greg Newsome is gone; he’s already been dealt. Not for a running back when rookie Jordan James has yet to play. Not for an offensive lineman; too expensive.

Can they still make the playoffs?

Yes, the NFC is in a down year. The Niners with their soft schedule can still make it, but their ceiling is probably the last wild card. They can’t contend for the Super Bowl. I now have them at 10-7 but that can drop with another big injury, and they play on the league’s worst field in New York on November 2nd. 10-7 is no lock to get in, there will be several teams in the hunt for that slot. Tiebreakers will be key.

The offensive line is flat bad right now; what are they going to do?

In-season, probably nothing. The best talent rumored to be on the block is Cleveland’s Joel Bitonio. No sacks allowed this year, a guard, he would make a huge impact. But he’s 34 and a free agent with no guaranteed money left. How much do you spend on him? A legit contender goes after Bitonio, not the Niners.

So what do the Niners do at OL? They have no choice but to turn to the draft. I’ve been working on a column about that; look for it soon.

Can the Niners survive without Warner?

Against many of the teams left on the schedule, yes; against legit playoff teams, no.

The play of the game was Baker Mayfield’s scramble on 3rd and long, breaking four tackles and the Niners' backs for a first down. The Niner defense has struggled mightily to recover emotionally from those plays over the years. Invariably, you can predict a score after one of those. In this game, it happened on the next play. A blown coverage by Deommodore Lenoir and an uncovered Kam Johnson scores from 34 yards out.

What hurts is knowing that if Warner had been on the field, I believe Mayfield wouldn’t have gotten that first down and the game changes.

Once Warner went down, Tampa attacked the Niners with intermediate throws, runs inside the tackles, and crossing routes in the middle. The area of the field where Warner stops the play. That will be part of the game plan for every team going forward. There's not much the Niners can do about it given how bad they are at safety in coverage; now they’ll need to outscore teams.

So, George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall to the rescue?

They’ll be vital. The defense can no longer win games. The offense will have to take over.

What are they going to do about their secondary?

All summer I accused the Niners of whistling past the graveyard at safety. Here we are. They have only themselves to blame. It will be the Achilles heel of the defense for the rest of the season, even with Malik Mustapha back, because the other starter isn’t a starter in talent. Switching Sigle for Jason Pinnock won’t help much; both are vulnerable in coverage with quarterback ratings against above 120.

What positives come out of this game?

The emotional resilience of the team, they kept fighting after Warner went down. Mac Jones put several throws on the money over the first defender and in front of the second. He was hurt, but played through it. Eddy Pineiro kicked four field goals, including one from 54. This team has character; it just doesn’t have enough talent to survive losing this many stars.

Looking back, the Trey Lance deal was compounded by drafting so poorly in 2022 and 2023. The combined loss of picks for Lance and then whiffing on literally every pick for two years left the cupboard bare. Another solid draft next year though, and they can recover and compete.

The season isn’t over, but with Warner’s injury the margin for error is now zero. That wasn’t true a week ago. To make the playoffs, they need to win the winnable games, but with the offense winning those games. They will be counting heavily on Kittle and Pearsall, and for the rookies on defense to ascend.