The Cole Kmet trade debate and how it ultimately makes little sense

They don't because rookie Colston Loveland is not an in-line tight end like Kmet is. Ben Johnson's offense requires both.

Here's why it can make sense, but ultimately why it doesn't make sense now.

A logical move

The best reason it can make sense is the cost. Trading Kmet now would save the team $10 million in cap space but $1.6 million would be eaten as dead cap space.

This savings is really the only legitimate argument for the Bears making such a deal at this point, unless they somehow found a team needing a tight end who has an edge rusher, a high-quality running back or very high draft pick to offer back in exchange.

There's no evidence of this being the case.   

In the future, it would be a way to easily recoup cap space if the Bears had an adequate replacement. They don't have one now and would just be getting by at that position while Kmet makes this a position of strength for them.

Why it makes no sense

Trading Kmet now when they can't be sure what they have in Loveland makes little sense. They may have drafted Loveland 10th overall but he hasn't actually practiced yet, padded or otherwise, and hasn't played in a game.

Isn't it wiser to make sure what they have before trading away an effective player who led all NFL tight ends in catch-to-targets ratio last year (85.5%)?

Tight end is usually a tough position for a rookie to play. Johnson does have experience working a rookie into the attack with LaPorta. Doing this with someone who missed the entire offseason of on-field practice is not going to be easy.

If they trade Kmet, they lose a player who plays a position no one else on the roster does. Kmet is an in-line tight end. He's bigger than any tight end on their roster at 6-foot-6, 257, and as such a real red zone threat.

Loveland is that tall but not that strong and he plays a different position. Loveland is a tight end who moves around. The move tight end is not the same position as the in-line tight end.

The offense requires an in-line tight end and move tight end because of Johnson's reliance on 12-personnel or two tight ends. This a physical player, someone bigger to be a run blocker and to block downfield or even as an added pass blocker, is necessary. Loveland is a willing blocker at 6-5, 248, scouting reports on him have never suggested he's a player who is a real force as a blocker. He is a receiving tight end who has filled in at both spots. So they would need the in-line or blocking position filled if Kmet got traded. This combination is a perfect yin and yang.

The Bears do have a potential replacement at in-line tight end in Durham Smythe. He has lined up more in-line than at other points in offenses during his career.

However, Smythe hasn't been a tight end who focused only on being an in-line type. Smythe's blocking experience with Miami has been only been average or below average as a run blocker. He had PFF blocking grades higher than 60 only twice in seven seasons and never higher than 61.4. He also is a career backup, never averaging more than 20 plays a game in his career.

Johnson's offense uses 12-personnel with two tight ends extensively. This is an important role.

Smythe is ideally suited for his current role as the backup at either position but not starting at either.

In Detroit, Johnson had Brock Wright playing the in-line tight end role while LaPorta was the move tight end. Wright could do both, like Smythe, but wasn't necessarily a perfect in-line fit. He definitely was less of an in-line tight end fit than Kmet because he never has had a run-blocking grade higher than 52 and three of his four seasons graded out n the 40s as a blocker.

Kmet represents something Johnson admitted he hasn't had, and that's a bigger in-line tight end to pair with his move tight end in the 12-personnel packages. It's just another way he can create havoc for defenses with mismatches. 

Ultimately, having two tight ends capable of different roles to damage defenses benefits quarterback Caleb Williams most.

“I think if you look historically, the impact tight ends have had on young quarterbacks, it’s pretty big," GM Ryan Poles said. "Now, he has two of them plus the other guys we have on the outside and in the backfield."

So why would they trade away that chance?

Oh, Johnson did talk up tight end Joel Wilson as one of the four players he was impressed with at OTAs. Wilson is another move tight end at only 245 pounds and not a particularly impressive blocker, definitely not an in-line type like Kmet.