The Comprehensive Guide to Bears vs Seahawks

In the above graphic, I have noted the spread and the projected spreads according to my two models, PFF, and 538’s two models for Bears vs. Seahawks. Why use two models from one source? I like to use multiple models to crosscheck each other. The more models that say something is a good bet, the more assurances you get. That’s what all of us gamblers want, assurances.

Bears vs Seahawks Cover History

In the graph, the blue line represents the expected point differential based on the spread. For example, if the spread is CHI +7, the blue line will have a data point at -7, since the Bears are expected to lose by seven. The orange line represents the actual result. Therefore, any data point above the blue line means that the Bears covered the spread and any data point below the blue line means the Bears did not cover. 

In Matt Nagy’s tenure as head coach of the Bears, he has compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 28-36. As an underdog, Nagy’s teams are 14-21 ATS (40%; NFL average is 54%). On the road, his teams are 13-18 ATS (42%; NFL Average is 53%). Combining those two factors, Nagy’s teams have a record of 8-11 ATS as road dogs. This represents a cover rate of 42%, versus the league average cover rate of 56%. 

“Good coaches win. Great coaches cover the spread.”

Since 2018, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have compiled a record against the spread (ATS) of 33-30. As a favorite, they are 18-22 ATS (45%; NFL average is 46%). At home, they are 16-14 ATS (53%; NFL average is 47%). Combining those two factors, the Seahawks have a record of 12-12 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. This represents a cover rate of 50%, versus the league average cover rate of 44%. 

Bears vs Seahawks Team Stats

The final ranking for each unit is the average of DVOA, EPA per Play (10% win probability filter), and success rate. DVOA is a metric developed by Football Outsiders that measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to the league average based on situation and opponent. Meanwhile, EPA per Play is a stat that aims to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points using historical data for down, distance, and field position. Finally, success rate measures the percentage of plays that generate positive EPA on offense or a negative EPA on defense. 

Seahawks Offensive Overview

Play-Caller: Shane Waldron

Personnel Groupings: RB-TE [WR]

• 1-1 [3WR]: 68% (Pass Rate = 67%)
• 1-2 [2WR]: 24% (Pass Rate = 47%)
• 1-3 [1WR]: 4% (Pass Rate = 21%)

Play Action %: 28.7% (11^th)

Screen %: 10.3% (19^th)

3^rd Down Conversion Rate: 34% (30^th)

Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 64.7% (4^th)

Explosive Play / Pass / Run Rate: 11% (8^th) / 10% (9^th) / 12% (14^th)

Score %: 29.7% (29^th)

Turnover %: 7.1% (2^nd Lowest)

Positional Breakdown

The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Tyler Lockett ranks 6^th out of 103 qualifying WR’s. This results in a percentile of 94% (MATH = 1 – (6/103)). In the right most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.

Offensive Line stats represent the entire unit, rather than any individual player. I believe that it is just too subjective of a stat to place statistical blame on individuals without knowing their assignments. 

Seahawks Defensive Overview

DC: Ken Norton Jr.

Base: 4-3

Blitz %: 24.1% (20^th)

3^rd Down Conversion Rate: 36.8% (7^th)

Red Zone TD Conversion Rate: 49% (5^th)

Explosive Pass / Run Rate: 7% (9^th) / 7% (1^st)

Score %: 34.6% (12^th)

Turnover %: 7.7% (28^th Highest)

Positional Breakdown

The “Pos. Rank” uses multiple position-specific stats to generate a relative ranking for each player at their position. The percentile is simply a representation of their rank. For example, Bobby Wagner ranks 17^th out of 81 qualifying linebackers. This results in a percentile of 79% (MATH = 1 – (17/81)). In the right-most column, you can see the stats used to generate the ranking.

Bears vs Seahawks Injury Report

COVID is throwing a wrench into the NFL’s plans. And the Bears and Seahawks are not an exception. 

Bears vs Seahawks Prediction: 

CHI: 17

SEA: 24

Extra Points