The crucial bet behind Cowboys' risky and controversial offensive line approach that could change everything

The year after the Dallas Cowboys produced the second best offense per EPA/play while producing a second-place MVP quarterback, the front office is tearing down the offensive line. 

Tyler Biadasz, who many considered was decent but not great, signed with the Washington Commanders. But most importantly, the Cowboys allowed Tyron Smith to go to the Seattle Seahawks even though he agreed to only $6.5 million guaranteed.

It's been a controversial approach to the offseason, as now Dak Prescott is set to play behind an O-line with question marks at left tackle, left guard, and center (the team likely won't know what the plan is for Tyler Smith until they know who they're picking in the 2024 NFL Draft).

From a glass half-empty point of view, you know that can be a major problem. Why would you voluntarily take on such risk on such a make-or-break unit? Why would you force yourself to address a position in the draft when you're the 24th team to make a pick in the first round? 

But for a change and in an effort to play devil's advocate, allow me to present the glass half-full point of view by outlining the crucial bet the Cowboys need to hit on to be relatively fine when the time comes.

The Cowboys are extremely likely to find a valuable lineman at 24th 

The Cowboys' bet comes down to this. When the time comes for them to be on the clock, at least one lineman's name will be staring at them on their board that fits the value of the pick they'll be making.

This is not to say the Cowboys are making the right decisions up front, which I strongly disagree with. However, in such an O-line heavy draft, we all seem to be in agreement that they'll likely find their guy. But recently, I wondered if there could be a scenario where they're totally wiped out at the position.

I strongly believe such a scenario doesn't really exist. Here's the (extremely basic) math behind my logic: 

• There are 23 teams picking before the Cowboys do in the first round.
• There are nine offensive linemen ranked in the top 30* for both the consensus board and Grinding the Mocks, a website which tries to predict the draft by data analysis and the wisdom of the crowds.
• There are 12 other players (non-OL) I'd call locks to go before the Cowboys pick including four quarterbacks, three wide receivers, two edge rushers, two cornerbacks, and one tight end. 
• Nine OL plus those 12 players gets you to 21 in total, meaning things would have to get really weird for Dallas to not land their O-lineman.

***Those nine OL: OT Joe Alt, OT Olu Fashanu, OT/OG Tailese Fuaga, OT JC Latham, OT Amarius Mims, OT/OG Troy Fautanu, iOL Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Tyler Guyton, OT/iOL Graham Barton. 

Now granted, this is superficial logic and not a reflection of how NFL teams often do things, with boards that tend to not line up with how media perceives the big event (part of the fun!). But at the very least, it helps paint a picture that there likely will be someone who makes sense for Dallas if they do decide to pick OL "no matter what," which they might have forced themselves to do already.

If the Cowboys were only looking at tackles, this wouldn't necessarily make sense. But since they've got Tyler Smith's flex skills to play tackle or guard, it pretty much gives Will McClay some leeway to pick a tackle, guard, or center at 24th.