The giant NY Jets WR misconception that makes no logical sense

My original premise of this article was slated to be your typical “5 Most Underrated Jets Players” list – perfect for this deserted portion of the NFL calendar.

But I figured I’d switch it up to something a little more specific. Instead of adhering to the generic “underrated” tag, I wanted to specifically target players who are underrated by the media.

Following this path, I was led to one specific player-versus-player comparison. It features a player who some in the media continue to label as the Jets’ WR2, pitted against another player who typically gets brushed aside as “just another guy” in conversations about the team’s wide receiver unit.

We’re talking about Allen Lazard versus Josh Reynolds.

Josh Reynolds is clearly the Jets’ second-best wide receiver

Some media outlets have labeled Lazard as the current favorite to be the Jets’ quasi-WR2 (although that term is overrated in this offense) entering training camp.

This is not to say that anybody out there is singing Lazard’s praises and guaranteeing that he will win the role; just about everyone acknowledges that Lazard will have to earn the spot, especially after his massive pay cut. Still, Lazard is widely pegged as the placeholder for New York’s WR2 spot.

It’s an easy pick. Among the Jets’ non-Garrett Wilson receivers, Lazard is the most well-known name, has earned the most money, and collected the most fantasy points. Who else should be considered the penciled-in WR2 until proven otherwise?

Well, Josh Reynolds. He is unequivocally a better football player than Lazard. There is no evidence to the contrary.

Seen below is a comparison of Reynolds and Lazard’s numbers over the past three seasons (2022-24). In particular, take note of the difference in efficiency.

Josh Reynolds (40 games / 1,069 routes run)

• 91 receptions on 147 targets (61.9% catch rate)
• 1,281 yards (8.7 yards per target)
• 9 touchdowns (6.1% TD rate)
• 65 first downs (44.2% first down rate)
• 5 drops (5.2% drop rate)
• 17-of-30 contested catches (56.7% contested catch rate)
• 12 missed tackles forced (0.132 per reception)
• 2 interceptions when targeted (1.4% interception rate)
• 104.7 passer rating when targeted

Allen Lazard (41 games / 1,364 routes run)

• 120 receptions on 209 targets (57.4% catch rate)
• 1,629 yards (7.8 yards per target)
• 13 touchdowns (6.2% TD rate)
• 91 first downs (43.5% first down rate)
• 17 drops (12.4% drop rate)
• 21-of-54 contested catches (38.9% contested catch rate)
• 7 missed tackles forced (0.058 per reception)
• 8 interceptions when targeted (3.8% interception rate)
• 87.2 passer rating when targeted

Box-score analysts would give Lazard the edge due to his advantages in sheer volume, but that disparity only exists because Lazard has been given more opportunities. On a per-opportunity basis, Reynolds is far-and-away the more reliable receiver.

Most importantly, Reynolds’ advantages in drop rate and contested catch rate are enormous. Lazard is more than twice as likely as Reynolds to drop a pass thrown his way, and he secures nearly two fewer contested catches out of every 10 chances. Reynolds is also more than twice as likely to make a defender miss.

The comparison becomes even more stark if you isolate Lazard’s performance without Aaron Rodgers, arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game (sorry, Tom Brady). Rodgers has propped up Lazard’s numbers throughout his career.

Seen below are Lazard’s numbers over the past three seasons on passes from quarterbacks other than Rodgers. Most of this production was accumulated in the 2023 season, Lazard’s first with the Jets.

• 29 receptions on 57 targets (50.8% catch rate)
• 357 yards (6.3 yards per target)
• 2 touchdowns (3.5% TD rate)
• 91 first downs (40.3% first down rate)
• 6 drops (17.1% drop rate)
• 6-of-20 contested catches (30.0% contested catch rate)
• 1 missed tackle forced (0.034 per reception)
• 1 interception when targeted (1.8% interception rate)
• 75.0 passer rating when targeted

Without Rodgers tossing him the rock, Lazard performs below the level of a rosterable NFL receiver. With Rodgers no longer in New York, Lazard is no more trustworthy than his unproven young competitors in the receiver room. Meanwhile, Reynolds is quite efficient in most areas of the position, even if he is not capable of handling a high target volume.

Reynolds’ enormous advantage extends to other parts of the game, too.

Both players have the size to project as strong blockers, but Lazard’s effort and consistency have waned in recent years, while Reynolds has remained productive. Since 2022, Lazard has generated a cumulative run-blocking grade of 49.1 in Pro Football Focus’ system. Over the same span, Reynolds’ cumulative run-blocking grade was 61.7.

Let’s not forget about penalties. Lazard has 16 of them on 2,198 offensive snaps since 2022, a rate of one every 137 snaps. Reynolds has six penalties on 1,368 snaps, which is one penalty every 228 snaps.

Reynolds is a better player than Lazard. The debate could hardly be more one-sided.

It is also critical to note that Reynolds accumulated most of his production over the past three seasons in Detroit. There, the Lions’ passing game coordinator was Tanner Engstrand, who is now the Jets’ offensive coordinator. With the Jets poised to run a scheme that will carry similarities to Detroit’s, Reynolds projects to have a strong likelihood of maintaining his past production.

And with his other competitors including unproven players like Xavier Gipson, Malachi Corley, Arian Smith, and Tyler Johnson, it is quite obvious that Reynolds is the Jets’ second-best wide receiver until proven otherwise.

With Rodgers likely signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers at some point in the next few months, the possibility still exists that New York is preparing to trade Lazard to Pittsburgh. His pay cut not only made it somewhat tenable to keep him on the roster, but it made him a feasible trade candidate.

Considering Lazard has never displayed NFL-caliber value without Rodgers throwing him the ball, it would make sense for the Jets to dump him on the Steelers for whatever they could get, however meager the return may be.

Whether Lazard stays or goes, there is no question that the Jets’ WR2 should be Josh Reynolds until one of the younger players seizes the role from him. The 30-year-old is a well-rounded complementary receiver who consistently performs well within his role.

Ideally, a limited player like Reynolds should not be a team’s No. 2 option on the outside. The Jets are hopeful that one of their young players will overtake him at some point, whether that is in training camp or during the season. In the meantime, Reynolds is the most reliable option to serve as the primary complement to Garrett Wilson.