The Hidden Risk in the Broncos’ Free-Agency Strategy

The Denver Broncos have seemingly been as free agency rolls on. The only team not to sign any outside free agents, the Broncos have brought back all but five of their own free agents and seem to be putting a lot on the 2026 NFL draft, as well as on development from their 2025 draft class. 

But is this a smart tactic? Broncos GM George Paton is applauded for his drafting ability, and he has definitely had some big hits over the years, along with plenty of great-value picks. It's easy to look at it through a Broncos lens, but where does he stand compared to the rest of the NFL? 

Paton's Draft Record

Since coming to Denver, Paton has made 38 picks as the general manager. Now, he has had three different coaches, with reportedly varying levels of influence in the team's draft decisions. That does impact things as well. 

Using different data sets to determine hits, from stats, time with the team, games played, and even contract status, we can look into where Paton compares to the rest of the league. Obviously, the jury is still out on all of 2025 and 2024, as three years is what you look for, so more weight was put on earlier years. Also, how big a hit a player is was balanced by their draft slot. 

Obviously, a first-round pick has a higher standard to be a hit than a second, which is higher than a third, and so on. So, where does Paton stand with his 38 draft picks made so far? 

Overall, the Broncos had the 12th-best value in their drafts during that time. That value, however, was carried by rush linebacker Jonathon Cooper and center Luke Wattenberg, who became good-quality starters at a minimum and signed big deals to stick in Denver. Trading wide receiver Devaughn Vele for a fourth-round pick was also a major boost to their value. 

Based on this metric, Denver hit on 10 of those 38 picks. However, slightly changing the definition of a hit can cause the number to vary from 8 or 38 (if it's more restrictive) to 13 or 38 (if it's less restrictive). Their overall value rank ranged from 12th to 18th, depending on how those restrictions change. 

Now, that's based on percentages, as obviously not every team makes the same number of draft picks. That puts Denver's percentage from 2% to 34%, and the general rule of thumb is that hitting 33% in a draft is good. The Broncos only exceeded that hit mark with the model's standards being the least restrictive, ranking them 15th out of 32. 

Obviously, these percentages can still be subjective, as people may value some stats more than others or have different views on how to weigh certain metrics. For me, a player's time with the team that drafted him matters a lot, which hurts Denver with many of its picks, including running back Audric Estime and even Vele, though the latter still had positive value in the return of his trade. 

Baron Browning and Javonte Williams are two others who ended up in a tier under neutral due to their time with the team. Baron being traded and his position change didn’t help, and Williams, with his injury and production afterward, didn't get a second contract. 

Why it Matters