The Importance Of Jamel Dean In Week 1

When Michael Penix Jr. looks to throw more than 10 yards down the field, he targets his dominant side – the left – an inordinate amount of the time. Almost half of his intermediate-to-deep throws were headed to what will be Dean's direction. And when Penix goes deep, it is that left side that he is most successful at connecting with. Where he exceled last year was finding single matchups to his strong side against cover-3.

For all the hullabaloo regarding the Bucs changing some of their defensive tendencies this year, head coach Todd Bowles is still a Cover-3 guy at heart. 45% of the Bucs' defensive snaps last year were Cover-3. And even if Bowles is dedicated to running more man coverage, Cover-3 will still likely be the most common coverage he calls on Sundays.

That means Penix is going to be looking to beat Jamel Dean.

The Truth About Jamel Dean

The truth regarding Jamel Dean is that, when healthy, he is still an effective corner. Bucs fans may be done with him, but the organization realizes several truths when it comes to the cornerback position broadly, and Dean more specifically.

1. Corner is one of the most volatile positions in football on a season-to-season, and even week-to-week basis.
2. Good corners don't grow on trees.
3. Keeping corners healthy all season is difficult to do – even outside of Tampa Bay! So having more corners is better than having less.
4. Rolling out a starting secondary with an average NFL tenure of 1.8 seasons would probably lead to steep learning curves had they opted to move on from him and roll with two rookies to begin the season.

Field Vision has a HAVOC rating to measure player effectiveness. Dean's 82.9 rating last year was 32nd overall in their database. He ranked 2nd in zone coverage by that same measure at 88.2. And despite the narrative about his lack of ball production he is much better in that area than you might think. 50 cornerbacks have played in every season since 2019. Here is where Dean ranks in various ball production metrics.

• Interceptions – t-20th (8)
• Coverage Snaps per interception – 30th (391.4)
• Forced Incompletions – t-7th (62)
• Forced Incompletion Rate – 15th (1.98%)
• Pass Breakups – t-13th (41)
• Pass Breakup Rate – 20th (1.31%)

And what can often get lost in the sauce is that Dean consistently maintains a below average (positive!) target rate. That particular fact will be challenged by the southpaw Michael Penix who will look to Dean's side at the start of most of his progressions. Dean will have to contend with wide receiver Darnell Mooney as a part of stacks and bunches as well as wide receiver Drake London from the slot, where his effectiveness on out-breaking routes was in the 99th percentile last year.

Dean vs. Atlanta – 2024

Jamel Dean missed the Bucs' second matchup against the Falcons in Week 8 of last year. But in Week 5, Dean allowed five catches on eight targets for 63 yards. Over an absurd 63 coverage snaps that went through a short overtime period his 1.00 yards per coverage rep was solid, but not stellar. And his actual play in coverage was inconsistent. If not for a Darnell Mooney drop, those numbers would have been much worse.

Facing Mooney for most of the times he was targeted, Dean was able to cap and blanket fades. But Mooney was able to get Dean to flip his hips inside before undercutting the Bucs corner on out-breaking routes for explosive gains multiple times.

The Bucs need Dean to be much better this time around as he will likely be targeted early and often. It's no secret the team has made significant investments in their secondary with both short-term and long-term implications. If not for a hamstring issue rookie Benjamin Morrison dealt with throughout most of training camp, Dean may not be set to start on Sunday. The Bucs will want to get Morrison involved in the defense sooner rather than later. A strong performance from Dean in Week 1 can at the very least make that a more difficult decision for Todd Bowles and company here in 2025.

Jamel Dean is an X-Factor for me in this matchup. I'll have my eyes on him tomorrow. You should too.